The early game on Sunday in the Wild Card round features the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Buffalo Bills. The narrative is that this is the year Josh Allen needs to win the Super Bowl because he won’t have to face the trio of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, or Lamar Jackson in the postseason. That narrative ignores this Bills team being the least-talented one Allen has had in the playoffs.
The Jags are five percentage points better than the Bills in DVOA. Jacksonville had the 9th-best strength of schedule this season, compared to Buffalo’s 31st-ranked schedule. The playoffs are generally where you see the difference in the strength of schedule.
We know what Josh Allen will do. He can run all over Jacksonville. The Jags have been great defensively, but they haven’t really played a tough slate. Will Trevor Lawrence play a clean game? The Bills haven’t stopped anybody this season—outside of the Eagles. The Jags have been rolling on this side of the ball. This feels like a game where Travis Etienne has a big game on the ground.
Expect a high-scoring affair, with the team that has the ball last having the chance to advance.
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