Week 15 was impactful on the injury front in the NFL. We also found out a lot about each NFC playoff team. The high-flying offenses didn’t disappoint, while the teams that lean on their defenses took a step back.
The fourth and ninth-seeded teams swapped places, as did the second and seventh-seeded teams. Here’s a look at the NFC playoff picture after 15 weeks.
Current NFC Playoff picture
1) Los Angeles Rams 11-3 (6-3 in the NFC)
2) Chicago Bears 10-4 (6-3)
3) Philadelphia Eagles 9-5 (7-3)
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-7 (5-5)
5) Seattle Seahawks 11-3 (6-3)
6) San Francisco 49ers 10-4 (8-2)
7) Green Bay Packers 9-4-1 (7-2-1)
The Rams scored over 40 points for the second game in a row. They did sustain a serious injury to wide receiver Davante Adams, but that just meant more targets for Puka Nacua. The Rams threw for 368 yards and ran for 159. Their offense operates at a level that resembles the 2023 Niners. Their defense has plenty of holes, but if you’re not scoring every time, it doesn’t matter.
Speaking of offenses that are clicking, Ben Johnson has the Bears in a groove. They didn’t have their top wideout, Rome Odunze, against the Browns, but it didn’t matter. Rookie Luther Burden is coming into his own, while DJ Moore and Colston Loveland give Caleb Williams weapons to score on anybody. Caleb Williams continues to progress, but it’s the running game and the offensive line that will be the reason Chicago is the team nobody wants to play in the playoffs.
The Eagles blanked Kenny Pickett and the Raiders. However, we didn’t learn anything new about them. If anything, the NFC East should be looked at negatively after the Cowboys lost to the Vikings. Philly still looks like a one-and-done team in the postseason.
The same is true for whoever wins the NFC South. It looks like nobody wants to win. The Bucs lost to the Atlanta Falcons, but are here because the Panthers lost to the Saints. What a sad sentence to type. If I’m one of the NFC West teams, I’m positioning myself to be in the fifth seed.
Seattle won a game without scoring a touchdown. They averaged 2.3 yards per carry and played a quarterback who hadn’t thrown a pass in the NFL since 2020. Football is fluid, and the more I see from Seattle, the more I see cracks in this team. As electric as they are defensively, the offense leaves a lot to be desired. Sam Darnold feels inevitable, and not in a positive way.
The Packers’ loss to the Broncos was only a footnote in Week 15. They lost Micah Parsons, who was their game changer and difference-maker on defense. Now, their pass rush reverts to ordinary, and their secondary is more likely to get exposed—as they did against a lowly Broncos offense. I went from thinking the Packers would make a deep playoff run with Parsons to pivoting to Green Bay being lucky to hold onto the No. 7 seed.
Green Bay travels to Chicago, then plays the Ravens, and will play a feisty Vikings team in Week 18. I don’t think the Packers make the playoffs. More on that later.
The 49ers path to the #1 seed
Green Bay’s loss was huge for the 49ers’ path to the No. 1 seed. Now, the Niners need the Rams to lose Thursday to Seattle and win out. Likely? Not really. The 49ers currently have a 17 percent chance to win the division, per ESPN’s FPI.
Never say never. The Rams won’t have Davante Adams. They’re also on the road, and it’s a short week. Plus, the last time these two teams played, Los Angeles’s offense looked mortal. Despite Sam Darnold turning the ball over four times, Seattle still had a chance to win. Their physicality can give the Rams fits.
Week 18’s matchup could come down to the No. 1 seed. Equally as important, it could determine who gets the fifth or sixth seed. The higher seed will face the NFC South champion and likely avoid the Rams until the NFC Championship. The fifth-seed’s chances to make a deep playoff run, where they’d face the Bucs/Panthers in the Wild Card and then get the Bears/Eagles — if the higher seed advances– would be significant. There is still an eternity left, but the fifth seed will matter.
NFC teams still in the hunt for the playoff picture
8) Detroit Lions 8-6 (5-5)
9) Carolina Panthers 7-7 (5-4)
10) Dallas Cowboys 6-7-1 (3-6-1)
No team benefited more than the Lions, despite losing to the Rams. Their offense remains dangerous, and that’ll be what gets Dan Campbell’s squad into the playoffs.
Detroit hosts the Steelers in Week 16, travels to Minnesota, and then goes to Soldier Field in Week 18 for a game that’ll determine the NFC North winner. I think the Lions win out and miraculously get the No. 2 seed. They are still the one team that can beat the Rams. They were up double-digits on Sunday, with plenty of chances to win.
Thanks for coming out, Carolina. The Panthers will have to win two of the final three against the Bucs(twice) and the Seahawks. While it’s certainly possible, it just does not seem like a team that will do what needs to be done in the clutch.
Dallas’s defense is atrocious, and it shouldn’t be long until they’re eliminated from playoff contention. Not only would the Cowboys need to win out, but they’re hoping the Eagles lose to Washington twice and the Bills. Good luck with that.
Simulated NFC playoff picture
Using ESPN’s playoff simulator and going through each of the remaining games for each NFC playoff team, here’s how I think it’ll turn out:
Ridiculous? Of course. Far-fetched? Kinda. But that’s the NFL. Not many people would have predicted that the Bucs and Panthers would lose this week. Seattle is begging to lose with that offense. The Lions look like a playoff team when I watch them. They just so happened to go against the Rams. It’s difficult to see them losing to teams unlikely to stop them.
Green Bay falls completely out of the playoff picture here, while the 49ers find a way to sweep Seattle in Week 18 and secure the fifth seed. Funny how things change in a week. I’m sure this picture will look completely different a week from now.
About the Author: Insidethe49
