49ers open up as touchdown favorites on the road against the Seahawks on Thanksgiving
By Insidethe49|Published On: November 20th, 2023 at 12:39 PM|
Bird for dessert on Thursday
The 49ers covered in convincing fashion against the Jacksonville Jaguars a week ago. Then against Tampa Bay, they opened as 10.5 point favorites and that number got as high as 12.5. Kyle Shanahan and the gang covered by the skin of their teeth for the second week in a row.
Now, on a short week, the 49ers travel north to face their rivals in the Seattle Seahawks. San Francisco opened up as a 6-point favorite, but those didn’t last long on DraftKings Sportsbook as that number was quickly bet up to 7.
The Seahawks were getting by early in the season thanks to their defense, but they’ve gone from the top seven-ish to now 19th in DVOA. They were top-3 against the run for the first month and a half of the season. They’re now 16th.
Geno Smith isn’t the same player as a year ago. And while Seattle still has weapons, they’re outside of the top ten in offensive DVOA and aren’t generating the big play, as evidenced by their 18th ranking in EPA per play.
They are going to have a difficult time blocking the 49ers defensive line. Smith was sacked twice against the Rams in Week 11 and was hit on six other occasions. Seattle scored 16 points on a Rams defense that’s among the worst in the NFL.
When you look at the opposing offenses that the Seahawks have faced, there has been two above-average units and both teams scored north of 30. Expect Brock Purdy and company to do the same.