The San Francisco 49ers are entering a portion of their schedule where they can stack wins and gain separation from the other playoff contenders. Step one of that is complete after a blowout win over the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.
Thanks to that victory and a loss by the Detroit Lions on Sunday Night Football, the Niners are back in the playoff race, after falling to the eight seed last week.
ESPN’s FPI projections have the 49ers finishing with 11 wins, with a 90 percent chance of making the postseason. There’s still a 19 percent chance to win the division, but that looks like a race for the Rams (62.3 percent projections to win the NFC West) to lose.
The Athletic is similarly bullish on the 49ers’ postseason hopes, giving them an 85 percent chance to make the playoffs, with the most likely opponent being Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions. It’s looking like the NFC West will get three teams in. Let’s take a look at the current playoff standings in the conference.
NFC Playoff Picture
1) Philadelphia Eagles 8-2 (7-1)
2) Los Angeles Rams 8-2 (3-2)
3) Chicago Bears 7-3 (5-2)
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6-4 (4-2)
5) Seattle Seahawks 7-3 (4-3)
6) Green Bay Packers 6-3-1 (4-2-1)
7) San Francisco 49ers 7-4 (7-2)
8) Detroit Lions 6-4 (3-3)
Another ugly win for the Eagles on Sunday night against a short-handed Lions squad on the road. Philadelphia has hardly been impressive, and I still refuse to believe a team that cannot throw the ball — Jalen Hurts was 3-for-10 at one point — is the best team in the conference. We’re not going to find out until they get bounced in the playoffs.
The Rams are likely the best team in the NFC, though they needed four interceptions from Sam Darnold to win a home game in which they didn’t score in the second or third quarters. A win is a win, but if anything, you’d be more impressed with Seattle’s resolve than the Rams finding a way to win.
I’m the old curmudgeon, get off my lawn, guy when it comes to the status of the NFC. You can easily poke holes in all of these teams. Perhaps none bigger than the team that won 19-17 over the Vikings despite throwing for fewer than 200 yards and scoring one touchdown. Chicago is the three seed today, but they play the Steelers, Eagles, Packers twice, 49ers, and Lions.
Seattle is a top-three team in the conference. They outgained the Rams 414 to 249 yards. They picked up 14 more first downs, but only converted 1 of 4 red zone attempts, and got the worst version of Sam Darnold. The Seahawks are not the team you want to play in the Wild Card round.
Nine drops for Jordan Love’s receivers in Week 11. No Tucker Kraft for the Packers, and it shows. Matt LaFleur running the ball on every first down like it’s 1980 doesn’t help, either. The Packers are a team that I cannot get a grasp on, which makes me think they have the biggest boom-or-bust potential of any team in the playoff race.
The 49ers I don’t think we’re going to learn much about the 49ers until we get to Christmas. There’s no reason to lose against the Panthers, Browns, or Titans during the next month. The defensive performance was disappointing in Week 11, but the offense was so effective that it didn’t matter. The next three games all have subpar offenses.
The Lions looked like they were playing left-handed against the Eagles, so maybe Philadelphia deserves credit for that — at least defensively. But when healthy, we’ve seen how potent their offense is. The Eagles were a bad matchup with how much man coverage Detroit plays. Most teams are not. This is a playoff team.
9) Carolina Panthers 6-5 (4-2)
10) Minnesota Vikings 4-6 (2-3)
11) Dallas Cowboys 3-5-1 (2-4-1)
12) Arizona Cardinals 3-7 (3-5)
13) Atlanta Falcons 3-7 (2-4)
14) Washington Commanders 3-8 (1-6)
15) New Orleans Saints 2-8 (2-6)
16) New York Giants 2-9 (1-7)
Bryce Young threw for 448 yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons. That tells you all you need to know about the Falcons. Everybody was open for Young, who had not thrown for 448 yards in the previous three games combined. Color me not impressed.
Poor Kevin O’Connell. The Vikings are a playoff team with an FCS quarterback. J.J. McCarthy playing like an average quarterback would have Minnesota in the playoff hunt.
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