The San Francisco 49ers have quite a few playoff scenarios that could happen in the final week of the regular season, as they’re vying for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The 49ers will play the Seahawks for the No. 1 seed next weekend at Levi’s Stadium, with the winner getting the coveted first-round bye. But, after the Los Angeles Rams had a surprise 27-24 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, there are a few more scenarios for how the NFC playoff seeding could end up.
Let’s break it all down, starting with the guarantees.
As mentioned, the No. 1 seed will be either the 49ers or the Seahawks, as the winner will have the best record in the conference.
The No. 2 and No. 3 seeds will be the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles, with the order determined by the Week 18 matchups. If Chicago beats the Detroit Lions, they’re the No. 2 seed. If they lose and the Eagles beat the Washington Commanders, they’ll flip.
The No. 4 seed will be the winner of the NFC South, which got a little more complicated after Atlanta’s win on Monday. If the Carolina Panthers beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they’re in.
If Tampa Bay wins, they’re not guaranteed a playoff spot. Because if the Falcons win again in Week 18 against the New Orleans Saints, there would be a three-way tie in the division, with the tiebreaker going to Carolina. So, Tampa Bay needs a win and an Atlanta loss to make the playoffs.
The Green Bay Packers are also set as the No. 7 seed. So, the final three spots (No. 1, No. 5, No. 6) are between the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams. Here’s how all the scenarios play out:
49ers win…
1 seed: 49ers
5 seed: Seahawks
6 seed: Rams
Seahawks win, and Rams win…
1 seed: Seahawks
5 seed: Rams
6 seed: 49ers
Seahawks win, and Rams lose…
1 seed: Seahawks
5 seed: 49ers
6 seed: Rams
If the 49ers win, the Seahawks would still have a better record than Los Angeles (13-4 vs. 12-5). If they lose and the Rams win against the Arizona Cardinals, though, San Francisco and Los Angeles would each have a 12-5 record.
In that scenario, the tiebreaker goes first to head-to-head record, which is a split. Then, it goes to division record, where both teams would be 4-2. Then, because they are divisional opponents, it goes to common opponent record. The Rams are 6-2 in those games, while the 49ers are 5-3. So, the Rams would get the No. 5 seed, and San Francisco would fall to No. 6.
If the 49ers don’t get the No. 1 seed, the No. 5 seed would provide a better matchup as they’d face either the Buccaneers, who have lost seven of their last eight, or the Panthers, whom they’ve already beaten. But, it’s looking unlikely that scenario plays out with Los Angeles being a considerable favorite at home over the 3-13 Cardinals.
Currently, FPI gives the 49ers a 50.6 percent chance at the No. 1 seed, a 9.5 percent chance at the No. 5 seed, and a 39.9 percent chance at the No. 6 seed.
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