Whether you are into the gambling world or not, the betting market is fascinating. Last week, the San Francisco 49ers were initially 14.5-point favorites over the Tennessee Titans.
By the time the game kicked off, the number got down to 12.5. A late touchdown by the Titans got them within ten points, but a final drive by the offense and an Eddy Pineiro field goal meant the 49ers covered.
The Indianapolis Colts were also 14.5-point underdogs in Week 15. They faced the Seattle Seahawks. It was Philip Rivers’ first game in four years, and everyone figured Seattle would destroy the Colts. That was not the case. The Seahawks needed a game-winning field goal as time expired to win.
They outgained Indy by 99 yards, but the fact that it was a competitive game, the Seahawks went 2-for-13 on third down, and they averaged 2.3 yards per carry against a defense that has not been good against the run, should be concerning for Seattle.
The Colts are now at home against the 49ers on primetime next Monday Night. The Niners are 5.5-point favorites over the Colts on FanDuel Sportsbook, with a total of 46.5. I don’t think this game will be 18-16, as it was for Indy last week. This was a line that was 3.5 before Daniel Jones was lost for the season.
The 49ers offense has faced an easy schedule of defenses since Week 10, but during that stretch, they are fifth in the NFL in EPA per play and second in success rate. On the flipside, the Colts go from playing a defense that’s the nastiest in the league. Since Week 10, Seattle has had an EPA per play of -0.22. The second-place team is -0.16. The Seahawks allow a 32.9 percent rushing success rate, which is also first in the NFL.
Johnathan Taylor and company go from that to a Niners unit that’s been 18th in the league in EPA per play during the past month against offenses that won’t sniff the playoffs. More concerning is the down-to-down success teams have had against them. The 49ers are 29th in success rate allowed and dead last in rushing success rate since Week 10. Gulp.
Needless to say, the Colts will score.
So will the 49ers. They may not score 37 as they did against the Titans, but the Colts gave up 36 the week before against the Jaguars, gave up 27 to the Cardinals earlier in the year, 25 to the Falcons in Week 10, 27 to the Steelers the week prior, and 28 to the Broncos way back in Week 2. If those offenses are putting up points, it’s difficult to imagine Kyle Shanahan having trouble scoring.
It’ll be an entertaining game, and if the 49ers can play keep away while putting pressure on the new-look Colts offense, they have an opportunity to pull away. Christian McCaffrey looked spry against the Titans. He has an opportunity to have a big day.
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