The 49ers openly acknowledge that, on tape and by every typical measure you would normally look at, their run game is not working in any way close to their usual standard
San Francisco does not have a rushing touchdown this season and is averaging just 3.1 yards per rush, tied with the Bengals for the worst mark in the NFL.
Yet the 49ers are persisting with the ground game, with their 139 rush attempts ranking 10th in the league. That is an average of 27.8 attempts per game.
The 49ers had 33 rush attempts in Week 5, netting just 74 yards. On the other side, the Rams managed 78 yards on 16 attempts. Yet the 49er coaching staff was thrilled with their number of rushes despite their lack of productivity, and offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak articulated why on Thursday.
Said Kubiak:
“You look at the last game, we didn’t have good yards, but we had the attempts, which means we’re on the field. We’re staying on the field, and we’re converting some third downs and we’re sustaining some drives. Even though the runs aren’t producing what we want them to, we’re still able to get those. And even if they’re four-yard runs, three-yard runs, they still have that effect on the defense. So that is a positive, but do we want to keep getting better? Yeah. Do we want to have more yards? Yes. But anytime you can stay on the field, whether it be throwing the ball or not, you’re going to get those attempts and that means you’re moving the ball. So, it doesn’t always work out that way, but that’s how it did work out on Thursday. So, we want to get more production on the ground, but as long as we’re staying on the field, we’re going to keep trying.”
The numbers back up Kubiak’s words. Despite their lack of success running the ball, the ground game is helping them sustain drives. San Francisco is seventh in average time of possession (31:25) and entered Week 6 with 83 percent of its offensive series resulting in either a new set of downs or score, putting the 49ers ninth in the league.
Yet, though Kubiak expressed a similar sentiment to Kyle Shanahan when asked about the run game, the 49ers’ head coach and play-caller pointed to another factor that has been more critical to their ability to stay on the field.
Said Shanahan:
“Well last week you didn’t see much statistically at all [on the ground]. Kind of had an idea going into the game how big of a challenge that was going to be. I wasn’t proud of the production in terms of yards and everything, but I was extremely proud of how our team got over 30 carries. When you can do that and you’re averaging under three, that means you’re doing a lot of good things. You’re staying out there, you’re executing, you’re doing good on third down. But, we missed some opportunities earlier in this year, it got a little harder versus the Rams, it’s going to get harder this week versus Tampa Bay. But, we’ve just got to keep pressing away.”
It is the third down success that has played a greater role in the 49ers sustaining drives. The Niners are third in EPA per play throwing the ball on third down and fourth in success rate. In short, they have been close to unstoppable when they drop back to pass on the money down.
The issue is whether that kind of production on third down is sustainable. History suggests it is for the 49ers who, over the previous four seasons, rank fifth in EPA per play and third in success rate throwing the ball on third.
Such success over that period speaks to the 49ers being one of the best third down teams in the NFL regardless of quarterback, with that span covering games by Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance and Brock Purdy as well as spot starts for Brandon Allen and Josh Dobbs.
So, for all its struggles, the 49ers probably can afford to keep pressing away with the run game even if they don’t succeed. Still, it would be a great help if they could take some of the pressure off third down by making some hay on the ground. Unfortunately, that’s unlikely this week against a fearsome Tampa Bay run defense.
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