After an emotional Week 6 loss in Tampa Bay that saw the San Francisco 49ers lose their leader for the season, the 49ers will look to bounce back against another NFC South foe – and former NFC West rival – with a Sunday night tilt against the upstart Atlanta Falcons.
While the 49ers are coming off their second loss of the season in a 30-19 defeat to the Buccaneers, the Falcons are flying high with consecutive wins over the Commanders and Bills. With a balanced offense that features one of the most-feared ball carriers in the league, it’s the Falcons’ defense that’s been their best feature, allowing a league-best 253 yards per game.
But before we get to Atlanta’s defense, let’s take a look at that running back who can beat you in different ways. These are the numbers to know for Week 7:
822
Falcons’ running back Bijan Robinson leads the NFL with 822 total yards from scrimmage.
To make it even more impressive, Robinson has played in one fewer game than anybody in the top 13 with Atlanta’s Week 5 bye week.
With the game in hand, Robinson only leads by 42 yards with the 49ers’ running back Christian McCaffrey in second with his 780 total yards. How the two have totalled their scrimmage yards, however, couldn’t be more different.
Robinson has been much more balanced in his attack on opposing defenses, with 58.9 percent of his yards coming on the ground. With 484 rushing yards on 83 attempts, Robinson leads all running backs by averaging 5.8 yards per rush attempt. McCaffrey, on the other hand, has had 25 more rushing attempts than Robinson this season, resulting in 148 fewer yards. With 336 rushing yards on 108 attempts, McCaffrey is averaging a career-low 3.1 yards per rush attempt.
Where McCaffrey makes up ground on Robinson is in the passing game, but again, it’s quantity over quality for the 49ers running back. McCaffrey’s 46 receptions are second in the league behind Puka Nacua’s 54 receptions, with McCaffrey totalling 444 yards on those catches. Robinson trails McCaffrey with 338 receiving yards, but has only 24 receptions in his five games.
Add it all up, and McCaffrey has 47 more touches than Robinson, leading the league with 154 touches on the season. While McCaffrey has been impactful, Robinson has been much more explosive and could prove a difficult test for Tatum Bethune to keep track of in place of Fred Warner.
McCaffrey could easily catch Robinson as well, especially if he gets going in the run game. Sunday night will be his best chance of the season to get rolling on the ground.
114.0
The Falcons’ defense allows 114.0 rushing yards per game.
While not too bad a number, the league average for rushing yards allowed sits at 113.4; Atlanta’s run defense will be the worst of the previous six teams the 49ers have faced.
Here are the run defenses the 49ers have faced so far, in chronological order:
- Seahawks: 79.0 rushing yards allowed per game
- Saints: 114.0 (New Orleans has faced more rushes than the Falcons, allowing 3.8 yards per attempt compared to Atlanta’s 4.8, which is sixth-worst in the league)
- Cardinals: 102.0
- Jaguars: 91.5
- Rams: 107.8
- Buccaneers: 88.2
To say San Francisco has been stagnant in their rushing attack would be polite, but they have faced some solid run defenses. McCaffrey’s season-high in rushing yards this season was way back in Week 1 when he ran for 69 yards, but his most productive was in Week 2 against New Orleans when he averaged 4.2 yards per attempt on 13 rushes in the win over the Saints.
Since then, the 49ers haven’t gotten much on the ground from McCaffrey.
Atlanta had a positive start to the season against the run, allowing 101 rushing yards in Week 1 against Tampa Bay, 78 against Minnesota in Week 2, and 110 to Carolina in Week 3. But the wheels have fallen off the last two games. Chris Rodriguez and Bill Croskey-Merritt combined for 106 of Washington’s 147 rushing yards; however, Marcus Mariota could only manage 147 passing yards in the Falcons’ Week 4 win over the Commanders. After the bye, the run-stopping issues continued, as James Cook rushed for 87 yards, the most Atlanta has allowed to a single rusher this season, as part of Buffalo’s 134 rushing yards. But again, Atlanta came out on top.
The Falcons haven’t allowed more than 160 passing yards this season, which could cause issues for either Brock Purdy or Mac Jones with a lack of weapons in the passing game. With Atlanta’s struggles in the run game and the return of run-blocking extraordinaire George Kittle, McCaffrey and the 49ers offense will need to show some sign of life in the run game.
4.1
Atlanta’s offensive line has allowed a sack on 4.1 percent of Michael Penix’s dropbacks, the fourth-best rate in the league.
That could spell trouble for a struggling 49ers pass rush. San Francisco’s defense got to Spencer Rattler three times back in Week 2, with Nick Bosa, Upton Stout, and Bryce Huff all recording sacks in the win. The following week, Bosa went down with his knee injury, and the 49ers have recorded three sacks in the four games since, including Week 3 against Arizona.
Atlanta has done an excellent job keeping Michael Penix upright, allowing their second-year quarterback to be sacked only seven times this season. Only the Colts and Broncos have allowed fewer sacks this season.
It’s been particularly tough to penetrate the interior of Atlanta’s line, with guards Chris Lindstrom (10 pressures allowed) and Matthew Bergeron (10), and center Ryan Neuzil (4) allowing just a combined 24 of 55 pressures allowed by the Falcons’ offensive line. The 49ers’ interior has struggled at creating pressure, with Jordan Elliott leading the 49ers’ interior defensive line with just six pressures in six games. While Mykel Williams will be used on the interior in pass-rush situations, he’s only managed 13 pressures this season, but did record the first sack of his career last week in Tampa Bay.
Not only will San Francsico need to find ways to get pressure on Penix, they’ll need to be careful on how they find that pressure. Penix has been more efficient this season against the blitz compared to when he’s not blitzed. On 121 dropbacks this season, when he’s not blitzed, Penix has thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions, suitable for a passer rating of 80.6. When opponents send extra rushers towards Penix, he’s only thrown one interception and one touchdown on 51 dropbacks for a passer rating of 97.8.
Atlanta features a unique challenge for Robert Saleh and the San Francisco defense. With the weapons around Penix, including Bijan Robinson, the Falcons have plenty of ways to handle opposing defenses.
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