The San Francisco 49ers came into this season with one of the easiest schedules of any team in the NFL. That schedule has benefitted the team through six games. The Niners have four wins despite a plethora of injuries, most of which have affected their best players.
Looking at some strength of schedule data, the 49ers have the ninth-easiest schedule remaining:
There’s a caveat when you look at this, as teams could go on second-half or midseason runs and appear stronger than they are as of today. Still, teams like the Giants, Cardinals, Panthers, Browns, and Titans aren’t keeping their opposition up at night.
The 49ers will play the rest of the season without their two best defensive players. On Monday, head coach Kyle Shanahan hinted at the fact that Warner’s injury won’t change how they view this season: “Not having Fred makes that harder, but I don’t see a big difference between Sunday before that game started and today.”
That sounded like a coach who is approaching the trade deadline from a macro perspective. The 49ers came into 2025 with one of the highest projected win totals, thanks in large part to a perceived more manageable schedule. Those projections ignored the heavy roster turnover, inevitable injuries, and rookies playing the bulk of the defensive snaps.
Shanhan’s quote suggests the 49ers never viewed the trade deadline as a potential savior to salvage their season. ESPN released seven potential options at edge rusher, but most of them would be 1-year rentals or role players. There’s nothing wrong with that, but these aren’t players that would put the Niners over the hump in a way that Christian McCaffrey has.
Which brings us back to the schedule. The 49ers are favored to beat the Falcons in Week 7. They’re currently 1.5-point underdogs to the Houston Texans the following week. Unless Jaxon Dart morphs into the best version of Eli Manning, the Niners will be favored to beat the Giants in Week 9. If you’re 7-2, or even 6-3, a couple of days before the trade deadline with divisional dates against the Rams and Cardinals looming, it’d be tempting to move on from draft assets and find a player or two to improve your roster.
There’s a very real chance that San Francisco will be favored to win the rest of their games. At worst, like the Texans game, it will be a coin flip. The Rams and Seahawks games are at home. The Colts look good now, but teams will eventually catch on to Daniel Jones.
We bring up the schedule because the Niners can put themselves in an ideal position come playoff time. Going through the schedule, 10 wins feels like the floor for this team. Once you’re in the playoffs, anything goes.
The counterargument would be that San Francisco acknowledges its defensive shortcomings. The ways in which the 49ers won to begin the season weren’t sustainable, especially against playoff-caliber teams.
The product that’s been on the field for six weeks isn’t indicative of a team that is one or two pieces away from winning a Super Bowl. The 49ers are one of two NFL teams with a winning record and a negative point differential. Using draft capital on temporary pieces isn’t worth losing out on a potential 4-year starter on a rookie contract.
One would also wonder how much the 49ers will find out about themselves playing against teams that won’t sniff the playoffs. If anything, the schedule is even more of a reason for the Niners to stand pat at the trade deadline. And by standing pat, we’re thinking more along the lines of a Kingsley Enagbare as opposed to a Trey Hendrickson.
Most of these are teams you should beat. The best play-caller in the sport is still the play-caller. If the 49ers were going to go anywhere this season, it was because they were finally healthy on the offensive side of the ball.
George Kittle is expected to play this week against the Falcons. Even if Ricky Pearsall misses another game, his activity is a sign that he’ll return in a game or two. The 49ers could have Brandon Aiyuk in uniform when they play the Rams next. The biggest acquisitions this team will have over the next month will be players returning from injury.
The 49ers also have to think long-term. By 2027, they’ll have the least amount of effective cap space in the NFL. That’s when the extra draft picks will come in handy. Sure, they have the cap space to take on veteran contracts today, but every penny you save and roll over will be helpful in the next two years.
This is a season to benefit from a softer schedule to make the playoffs. It allows you to find a groove offensively as you get healthier, while Robert Saleh continues his weekly whack-a-mole on the other side of the ball. Then, once you get into the postseason, rely on the Shanahan and a healthy, high-powered offense to play keep away as they put pressure on the opposing offense to keep pace.
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