We break down the 10 most important plays \u2014 from a win-probability perspective \u2014 from last Sunday\u2019s matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Indianapolis Colts.<\/h2>\n

On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers\u2019\u00a026-23 loss<\/a>\u00a0to the Indianapolis Colts marked the Niners\u2019 second straight overtime loss, and their fourth straight loss by three or fewer points.<\/p>\n

Today, we\u2019re going to break down each of the 10 most important plays of the game.<\/p>\n

Play importance will be determined by calculating the play\u2019s impact on each team\u2019s probability of ending the game with a victory \u2014 a measurement appropriately called \u201cwin probability.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Various organizations and websites have their own algorithms for calculating win probability \u2014 today we\u2019ll use the algorithm developed by the analysts at\u00a0numberFire<\/a>, which uses a number of variables, including the respective strengths of the teams, the score, the time remaining in the game and the teams\u2019 current location on the field.<\/p>\n

The 49ers waited until the fourth quarter \u2014 and a\u00a014-point deficit<\/a>\u00a0 \u2014 to finally get the ball into the end zone, ending a seven-quarter touchdown drought. The Niners\u2019 17-point fourth quarter was enough to force overtime, but not enough to secure the team\u2019s first victory of the season.<\/p>\n

After trading field goals with the 49ers in the first and second quarters, the Colts scored 10 unanswered points in the third quarter. After a fourth-quarter field goal by 49ers kicker Robbie Gould, Indianapolis added another touchdown.<\/p>\n

With under 10 minutes remaining in the game \u2014 and a 23-9 lead \u2014 the Colts had a 96.9 percent probability of winning the game. The 49ers quickly drove down the field for their first touchdown, but the score only added eight percent to the team\u2019s probability of victory.<\/p>\n

When the 49ers received the ball back with five minutes and 29 seconds remaining on the clock, they had a 16 percent chance of winning the game \u2014 but that number would quickly change.<\/p>\n

Here are the 10 most important plays of the game, in chronological order:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We break down the 10 most important plays \u2014 from […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":1201831,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"pgc_meta":""},"categories":[439,3,56],"tags":[436,425,434,474,429],"yoast_head":"\n