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Going through each game to determine how many times the 49ers will have the upper-hand under center<\/p>\n
It\u2019s not often that the team who is the favorite to win a division, conference, or Super Bowl<\/a> has question marks at quarterback. Yet, for what\u2019s perhaps the fourth consecutive year, that\u2019s the case for the San Francisco 49ers<\/a> headed into the 2023 regular season.<\/p>\n The 49ers are the runaway favorites to win the NFC West. They hold a slight edge over the Philadelphia Eagles<\/a> to come out of the NFC, while the Niners are neck and neck with the Buffalo Bills<\/a> and the Kansas City Chiefs<\/a> to win the Super Bowl.<\/p>\n That\u2019s not too shabby for a team whose quarterback everyone predicts will start for the majority of the season can\u2019t throw a 15-yard out route as of today.<\/p>\n Everyone expects Brock Purdy to pick up where he left off and lead the Niners to an astronomical points per game average again. The offense\u2019s numbers were eye-popping when you extrapolate how efficient, effective, and explosive they were for the final month and a half of the season.<\/p>\n It\u2019s easy to understand why expectations are so lofty. If there was an offensive category, the 49ers find themselves in or near the top-5 down the stretch last season. Will life be sunshine and rainbows for Purdy again this year? The schedule is a bit tougher. And while Purdy will have the benefit of a superb supporting cast and an incredible play-caller, teams always seem to play-up to the 49ers while more film on Purdy will only help the case for opposing defenses.<\/p>\n Today, we\u2019re keeping it simple. If we go game-by-game, how many teams have a better quarterback than the 49ers?<\/p>\n We\u2019ll use a couple of stats including EPA (expected points added), which favors the explosive plays. Success rate, which is more of a down-to-down stat. And Sports Info Solution’s Total Points Earned metric, which is similar to baseball\u2019s WAR. Finally, SIS has their version of quarterback rating, which is IQR, but doesn\u2019t fault the QB for dropped passes, and includes other parts of the game, such as throwaways and dropped interceptions, for example.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s be honest, no matter the stat thrown out, we\u2019ll go with who our gut tells us is the better player. Purdy is going to have better numbers than Sam Darnold the Carolina Panther because Darnold wasn\u2019t throwing to the same cast of wide receivers. That has to matter when evaluating the game. So, without further ado…<\/p>\n Week 1 \u2013 Sunday, September 10 at <\/strong>Pittsburgh Steelers<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 10:00 a.m. PT<\/strong><\/p>\n For the first four games, we\u2019ll act as if Purdy is still on the mend and Trey Lance has won the starting job. So, in Week 1, we have Lance against another former first-round quarterback, Kenny Pickett. As we know, Lance doesn\u2019t have any season-long metrics to go off.<\/p>\n EPA: 25th We don\u2019t have to waste time here. Give me Lance. Pickett\u2019s IQR was so low that he didn\u2019t qualify. He ranked a couple of hundredths higher than Davis Mills and Joe Flacco. Lance versus Pickett isn\u2019t an argument worth having.<\/p>\n Whether it\u2019s Purdy, Darnold, or Lance, the 49ers have the advantage under center in Week 1.<\/p>\n Week 2 \u2013 Sunday, September 17 at <\/strong>Los Angeles Rams<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 1:05 p.m. PT<\/strong><\/p>\n EPA: 32nd Stafford\u2019s 2022 season was injury-riddled. He barely played half the season and came into the year banged up. It\u2019s difficult to put too much stock into what we saw last year as we\u2019ve seen Stafford lead the Rams to a Super Bowl title.<\/p>\n His numbers may not reflect it, but Stafford is still an upper echelon quarterback in this league. If you reverse the roles, Kyle Shanahan would take Stafford over either of the three 49ers QBs, and so would I.<\/p>\n Week 3 \u2013 Thursday, September 21 vs. <\/strong>New York Giants<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 5:15 p.m. PT <\/strong><\/p>\n Purdy could make his return for the home opener. That feels like the most clich\u00e9 storyline, but we\u2019ll roll with Lance for now. Giants head coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka deserve all of the credit in the world for how they had New York\u2019s offense and Daniel Jones operating last season.<\/p>\n EPA: 12th Jones flirting with being a top-10 quarterback wasn\u2019t something anyone imagined before the start of last season. That\u2019s a reflection of his coaching and the situations they put him in. Another reason I like to use the stat IQR is that it accounts for rushing, which is something Jones is brilliant at.<\/p>\n This is closer than many 49ers fans would like it to be, but the natural talent wins out and Lance just gets the nod. What he brings to the table feels more sustainable than what we saw from Jones last year, even if there\u2019s a small sample size.<\/p>\n Remember, even if a downpour in Chicago last year, Lance was still among the league leaders in Week 1 for first downs. Then, in Week 2, the offense moved the ball on both possessions.<\/p>\n Lance is up 2-1 through three games.<\/p>\n Week 4 \u2013 Sunday, October 1 vs. <\/strong>Arizona Cardinals<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 1:25 p.m. PT on FOX<\/strong><\/p>\n The 49ers are likely to face a backup quarterback from Arizona for the third consecutive season. No matter if it\u2019s Colt McCoy or rookie Clayton Tune, whoever is under center for San Francisco has the clear advantage.<\/p>\n It\u2019ll feel the same for each game, as the Niners quarterbacks are grouped similarly enough where it wouldn\u2019t matter who you select. If you like one of them, you\u2019d likely pick them all over the opposition. <\/p>\n OK, Trey, your time is up. It\u2019s Brock\u2019s turn.<\/p>\n Week 5 \u2013 Sunday, October 8 vs. <\/strong>Dallas Cowboys<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 5:20 p.m. PT on NBC<\/strong><\/p>\n Now we start to have some fun. The internet is not a fan of Dak Prescott. Like, at all. Prescott isn\u2019t without his faults, but he\u2019s far from a net neutral for the Cowboys.<\/p>\n Dak\u2019s numbers in \u201822: Brock\u2019s numbers in \u201822:<\/p>\n EPA: 6th Purdy\u2019s numbers were so good last year that you have to double-check to make sure you\u2019re not looking at the wrong quarterback. The only QB with a higher IQR last season plays for the Chiefs. Purdy\u2019s total points earned seems low, but it\u2019s a data point that accumulates all season. On a per-game basis, only Kansas City\u2019s quarterback had a better number, too.<\/p>\n Each 49ers quarterback had an identical turnover worthy throw rate last year, putting the ball in harm\u2019s way 2.6 percent of the time. That\u2019s 1.2 percent better than what Prescott did.<\/p>\n Who would you rather have under center? Dak is the better processor, has the better arm, and, overall better feel for the game. Dallas has the better quarterback.<\/p>\n After five games, the 49ers are up 3-2.<\/p>\n Week 6 \u2013 Sunday, October 15 at <\/strong>Cleveland Browns<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 10:00 a.m. PT on FOX<\/strong><\/p>\n There\u2019s no way to beat around the bush. Last year, Deshaun Watson was sub-par. Browns media has tweeted out that this offseason\u2019s version of Watson has looked better than he did all last year, but that\u2019s a low bar. Which version of Watson will we see this year?<\/p>\n EPA: 32nd Purdy and Watson threw the same number of passes last year. Purdy nearly doubled Watson in Sports Info Solutions Total Points Earned metric while boasting an IQR 25 points higher.<\/p>\n And I\u2019m still taking Watson. I\u2019d expect both to regress to the mean to some degree. There are too many flashes of brilliance from Watson throughout his career.<\/p>\n Week 7 \u2013 Monday, October 23 at <\/strong>Minnesota Vikings<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 5:15 p.m. PT <\/strong><\/p>\n Is it OK to admit that Kirk Cousins is an above-average quarterback? Do I want him leading my team to a comeback in the fourth quarter? Can I feel the back-breaking interception coming? Yes.<\/p>\n But Cousins is a tremendous deep ball thrower and keeps the Vikings ahead of the chains. Here\u2019s how he performed last season<\/p>\n EPA: 20th I wouldn\u2019t fault you for picking Kirk given his experience in this situation, but I\u2019m going with Brock for one reason: his ability to escape and create. That\u2019s where Kirk lacks, and, with the game on the line, I need my quarterback to have an ounce of athleticism.<\/p>\n The 49ers re-take the lead 4-3.<\/p>\n Week 8 \u2013 Sunday, October 29 vs. <\/strong>Cincinnati Bengals<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 1:25 p.m. PT on CBS<\/strong><\/p>\n Joe Burrow finds himself in everyone\u2019s top five. After last season, it\u2019s well-earned:<\/p>\n EPA: 9th Burrow is the ultimate gamer, much like Purdy. He\u2019ll hang in there, take a beating, and get right back up and deliver a throw on the money. If Purdy can continue to keep the same competitive nature that Burrow has, the 49ers are in good hands.<\/p>\n I\u2019m going with Burrow, as I think his accuracy is far superior to Brock\u2019s, as is his pocket presence.<\/p>\n Week 10 \u2013 Sunday, November 12 at <\/strong>Jacksonville Jaguars<\/strong><\/a> \u2013 10:00 a.m. PT<\/strong><\/p>\n The string of quarterbacks the 49ers will play in a row should have us talking about their defense. Week 10 brings the next golden boy, Trevor Lawrence. He\u2019s a very good, not quite great quarterback.<\/p>\n Lawrence isn\u2019t quite elite in one area, but you could see him take his play to another level last year as the season went along.<\/p>\n EPA: 10th Lawrence is a much better athlete than given credit for and even despite some hiccups in the red zone, had the Jaguars competing in games they had no business being in. Would I rather have Purdy throwing passes for the 49ers or Lawrence? I\u2019ll take Trevor.<\/p>\n After an easy first month, the 49ers now trail 5-4 in head-to-head quarterback matchups.<\/p>\n
Success Rate: 24th
Total Points Earned: 27th
IQR: N\/A<\/p>\n
Success Rate: 20th
Total Points Earned: N\/A
IQR: N\/A<\/p>\n
Success Rate: 10th
Total Points Earned: 9th
IQR: 10th<\/p>\n
EPA: 8th
Success Rate: 3rd
Total Points Earned: 14th
IQR: 20th<\/p>\n
Success Rate: 12th
Total Points Earned: 22nd
IQR: 2nd<\/p>\n
Success Rate: 30th
Total Points Earned: N\/A
IQR: N\/A<\/p>\n
Success Rate: 13th
Total Points Earned: 10th
IQR: 19th<\/p>\n
Success Rate: 6th
Total Points Earned: 6th
IQR: 5th<\/p>\n
Success Rate: 4th
Total Points Earned: 7th
IQR: 8th<\/p>\n