Going head-to-head with positions doesn’t make much sense, since Brock Purdy isn’t going to be on the field at the same time as Jalen Hurts. Could you imagine how Purdy would look with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith? It would be all hypothetical.
So we’ll preview the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles based on the units that will face each other.
49ers pass catchers versus Eagles secondary
One quarterback will be tasked with elevating the talent in a difficult matchup, while the other has one of the more favorable matchups this weekend.
That’s not to make excuses for Purdy. Drake Maye has elevated his receivers all season with his play. That’s why he’s in the MVP conversations. Can Purdy do the same on the road?
It was tough sledding against Seattle in Week 18 for the 49ers on the perimeter. Separation was hard to come by, and the lack of precision and speed for the wideouts against a top-tier secondary was on full display.
Ricky Pearsall has yet to practice this week. He ran on the side of the field on Thursday. It goes without saying that the 49ers can’t afford to miss their first-round pick from a year ago.
Adoree Jackson ran a 4.42 40-yard dash. Cooper Dejean ran a 4.42 at 203 pounds. Quinyon Mitchell ran a 4.33. The Eagles’ cornerbacks can flat out run. No team in the NFL runs man coverage at a higher rate than Vic Fangio, which was close to 42 percent.
Mitchell has more passes broken up than receptions allowed since Week 10. He’s one of the three best cornerbacks in the NFL. When you have a shutdown cornerback, it makes life easier on everybody else.
Purdy completed 61.7 percent of his passes this season against man coverage, with an adjusted net yards per attempt of 7.09, good for 18th in the NFL. Purdy has a cheat code in George Kittle, who ranks near the top of the league in yards per route run against man coverage at 3.20. Pearsall is at 3.0, which is an elite number.
The issue is that Jauan Jennings, Demarcus Robinson, and Kendrick Bourne all rank outside of the top 200 in that same metric. The 49ers have to make the Eagles pay for starting Jackson. Shanahan will target him. It’s just a matter of whether the wideouts can win.
Despite running as much man coverage as they do, the Eagles allow the lowest passer rating when running man coverage in the league at 75.2, and the fourth-lowest yards per attempt. Shanahan will scheme up a couple of man beaters, but after last week, it’s tough to have faith in the 49ers outside of the numbers.
Advantage: Eagles secondary
49ers tight ends and running backs versus Eagles linebackers and safeties
Kittle should have no fewer than 10 targets in this game. The same applies to Christian McCaffrey if Pearsall cannot play. Don’t waste time targeting the Eagles’ strength. Instead, rely on what you do well.
The Eagles are second in DVOA at defending the opposing WR1 and sixth at defending the slot. That tells you how incredible Mitchell and Dejean are at their jobs. Philly is No. 1 against tight ends, but the tight end they’re facing on Sunday is a little better than the ones the Eagles faced down the stretch.
Zack Baun has proven to be a quality player. But if the 49ers can get Kittle or McCaffrey lined up against Reed Blankenship, Jihaad Campbell, or Nakobe Dean, they have to feel good about those matchups. Each of the players mentioned is allowing over 11 yards per reception.
We haven’t seen McCaffrey run too many routes split out as a receiver, but that should change this weekend. When targeting running backs, the Eagles rank 27th in success rate, 28th in yards per attempt, 25th in EPA per pass, and 30th in explosive-play rate allowed.
Purdy should have his eyes glued to McCaffrey and Kittle in the passing game, as it’s the area where the 49ers should find their most success.
Expect Shanahan to put a bullseye on Marcus Epps. He’s this week’s “mark.” Since being inserted into the starting lineup after an injury, Epps has left plenty to be desired in coverage. The Bills targeted Epps four times. They had four receptions for 58 yards and two first downs. They also targeted Blakenship, completing each pass and had two first downs.
With Purdy under center, the 49ers have the highest passing DVOA in the league at 48.1 percent, edging out the two MVP candidates in Matthew Stafford (47.6) and Drake Maye (44.8).
Advantage: 49ers tight ends and running backs
49ers running game against the Eagles’ defense
Motion will be key for the 49ers in the running game. The objective will be to get the Eagles out of their run fits, potentially biting on an illusion, and eventually opening up a rushing lane for McCaffrey.
The biggest difference between the Seahawks and Eagles’ defense is how they perform against the run. Since Week 11, the Eagles have been near the top of the NFL, still in EPA per play and success rate allowed. They’re 8th in rushing DVOA, but 26th in adjusted line yards and 27th in stuffed rate. That tells you they are not generating negative plays or playing on the other side of the line of scrimmage.
James Cook had 20 carries for 74 yards in Week 17. The ears had 47 carries for 281 yards. The Chargers had 38 carries for 169 yards, including 66 from their quarterback. There will be plenty of “three yards and a cloud of dust” rushes for McCaffrey, but that’s OK so long as you’re staying ahead of the chains and remaining on the field.
The 49ers are fifth in rushing EPA since Week 11 and 11th in rushing DVOA. The game could very well be won based on how many carries the 49ers can get and how often they can win on the ground on early downs. There isn’t a decisive winner here.
Advantage: Neutral
49ers offensive line versus the Eagles’ pass rush
The Eagles’ pass rush that consists of Jaelan Phillips and Jaylyx Hunt— the fourth-most pressures since Week 10 by a pass rush duo. During that same stretch, excluding Week 18 when they rested their starters, the Eagles had the sixth-highest pressure rate in the league. Nolan Smith and Hunt are in the top five in pressure rate during that time.
Despite generating pressure, the Eagles haven’t turned those into sacks. They are 15th in the NFL in sack rate. As well as rushing the passer since being traded, Phillips has only two sacks. Sacks end drives. Pressures do not.
Most teams will double-team Jalen Carter and bank on everybody else losing. Carter is the one player you cannot let beat you. Talent-wise, he’s on his own level. Fangio has tried to move Carter around, but the pressure numbers have remained low this season. Motivation has long been a question for Carter. But it’s the playoffs. If you can’t get up for this game, what game will you?
Since Purdy returned as the starter, the 49ers allowed a 7.7 quick pressure rate, which is the second-fewest in the NFL. They are allowing the longest time to throw. The right side has been nails this season for the 49ers. Colton McKivitz and Dominick Puni have allowed the 10th-lowest pressure rate among right guards and tackles. Getting Trent Williams back means you can isolate him, and then double Carter with Spencer Burford and Jake Brendel.
The idea that the 49ers are going to get embarrassed up front is more perception than reality. The numbers do not support the argument.
Purdy can win off script. This year, he was in the top three in success rate and seventh in passing DVOA against pressure. It should also be noted that the Eagles are 31st in EPA against quarterbacks who scramble when throwing. That makes sense when you play man coverage. Purdy’s legs will be a significant factor in this game.
Advantage: 49ers
Eagles pass catchers versus the 49ers secondary
Gulp.
DeVonta Smith is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, for my money. When he’s split out wide, he leads the league with 13.9 yards per target. He’ll likely go against Deommodore Lenoir, who is the lowest targeted cornerback in the league. Smith is a bad matchup for everybody, but the foot speed and acceleration he has are part of the reason Lenoir played Nickel for much of his career.
Smith lines up in the slot over 57 percent of the time. He’ll move around quite a bit. Under truth serum, do you think Robert Saleh would trust Lenoir or rookie Upton Stout more in coverage against Smith?
One of Jalen Hurts’ greatest strengths is throwing the ball to his best players. A.J. Brown was targeted more than ever this season. There are no secrets as to what he’s going to run. It’ll be a short hitch route, which Brown was second in the NFL in receiving yards and touchdowns this season, or a deep route. There’s really no in between. The problem is that if you try to press Brown, he’ll run right by you. If you play off, they’ll take the underneath hitches.
The conundrum is Brown against zone coverage. Brown caught 38 of his 49 targets for 478 yards against zone coverage since the Eagles bye in Week 9.
Saleh is trying to guess right and choose which cornerback to cover the flat, which could confuse Hurts and lead to a turnover or an incomplete pass, resulting in a punt. But guessing wrong will lead to a 1-on-1 downfield with Smith or Brown, defended by a safety.
The Eagles know where the 49ers will line up. Renardo Green on one side and Lenoir on the other. That makes it a bit easier for teams to target specific players and run certain route combinations.
The Eagles may be ineffective offensively and middle-of-the-pack statistically, but their Jimmys and Joes trump the 49ers
Advantage: Eagles
49ers linebackers and safeties against the Eagles’ tight ends and running backs
If the Eagles don’t target Saquon Barkley in the passing game, it should be a fireable offense. For whatever reason, Barkley has been an afterthought as a receiver this season. The 49ers will take it, but Barkley against any non-Stout second-level defender is a mismatch.
Dallas Goedert can still make you pay down the seams. He’s not targeted nearly enough, but has double-digit gains in every game but two this season. Will Goedert’s usage change after 17 games? Probably not. That doesn’t mean those three or four catches won’t be impactful.
Goedert will be the red zone threat the 49ers need to stop. Goedert will be the red zone threat the 49ers need to stop.
Hurts has missed enough open receivers this season to keep the 49ers in it. He’s very boom-or-bust in that department.
Advantage: Eagles
Eagles running game versus 49ers rushing defense
The Eagles are 16th in rushing EPA and 17th in rushing success rate since Week 11. Surprisingly, Barkley has been stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage at the third-highest rate in the NFL. There will still be the long, jaw-dropping carries, but they have been few and far between.
The 49ers are 19th in rushing EPA, but second-to-last in rushing success rate since Week 11. Breaking in a pair of new linebackers won’t help. Neither will Philadelphia getting back Lane Johnson. The Eagles’ offensive DVOA drops from 6.8 percent to -6.5 percent without Johnson on the field. Their rushing DVOA drops nearly six percentage points. He is that good of a player.
The 49ers don’t have much going for them on this side of the ball. They’re the second-best team in the NFL in third-and-short situations, but you have to get the offense in short-yardage situations. The defense is 11th in goal-to-go situations, but they’re allowing teams in the red zone far too often.
For the season, the 49ers are last in success rate on the ground. Even without the threat of Hurts running, you’re betting on a miscue by the Eagles.
Advantage: Eagles
49ers pass rush versus the Eagles’ offensive line
We’ll humor you here. The team with the fewest sacks of any team since 2022, had the second-lowest pressure rate, and allowed the third-most clean pockets in the NFL, is probably going to struggle getting after the quarterback.
Those back-to-back three-and-outs forced against the Bears were an anomaly. Yes, the Eagles lead the league in three-and-outs offensively—at one point in the second half, they were at a rate higher than anyone else since Week 14. But what have we seen to expect the 49ers to get off the field?
Keion White is practicing on Friday matters, but when that is who you are relying on to make a difference, you can understand why the confidence meter is low.
Advantage: Eagles
Does Saleh have any tricks up his sleeve? Perhaps blitzing Stout. Maybe one of the safeties. Hurts holds onto the ball. He’ll put it in harm’s way. But he’s going against a team that only forced 14 turnover-worthy throws all year. Hurts should be comfortable in this game.
The dearth of defensive talent shows up when they need it most. Many are expecting the Eagles to flip a switch and perform like the team from the past couple of years. They have given you zero reasons to believe that will be the case.
Will variance favor the 49ers?
The variance on this side of the ball makes this game fascinating. Hurts is averaging just over 200 yards passing. He only has 1.7 designed rushes per game, taking away a big part of what he does well: Running.
Hurts also has the lowest yards after catch production in the NFL– one spot lower than Purdy. Hurts went nuclear during the 2024 postseason on throws outside of the numbers, which is why analysts are confident in him again. But that 77.1 percent completion percentage was the highest since 2016. This year, Hurts has come back down to earth, with a completion percentage of 62.2 percent on those attempts, good for 13th in the NFL.
We mentioned how Hurts can be hit or miss when it comes to accuracy. In the playoffs last year, he completed an incredible 89.3 percent of his targets downfield with at least three yards of separation. This year, it was 65.6. When the Eagles lost, it was 58.8. Is a win as simple as Hurts losing the variance battle?
Obviously, a lot more goes into a 60-minute game. But Hurts being off-target—only five quarterbacks were more off-target all season—paired with the inconsistencies we’ve seen from the Eagles all season should bode well for the road team with the better quarterback and head coach.
Sunday will come down to how opportunistic the 49ers’ defense is, and how often the 49ers’ skill players can win against man coverage. Sprinkle in a few Purdy scrambles and highlight plays, and that’s how the Niners are victorious in the Wild Card round.
About the Author: Insidethe49
