The San Francisco 49ers finished their first orbit around the NFC West with a perfect 3-0 record, a considerable boost to their 6-3 start.
The second time around, the division begins with an NFC West two-step, starting on Sunday against the 6-2 Los Angeles Rams in Santa Clara before a Week 11 trip to Arizona.
It was a Thursday night primetime overtime match in Los Angeles at the start of October, with the 49ers pulling it out in a three-point victory the last time these two met. Since then, the 49ers have split their four games while the Rams have won their last three in a row to find themselves tied atop the division.
With the 49ers looking for consecutive victories since 2023 and their first season sweep of the Rams since 2022, here are the numbers to know for the Week 10 clash:
4
The 49ers will have (at least) four different starters on defense from their Week 5 win over the Rams.
It’s for varying reasons, but the 49ers defense will look much different than it did a month ago in Los Angeles. San Francisco will be without Fred Warner and Mykel Williams on Sunday due to injury, while the Week 5 safety duo of Marques Sigle and Jason Pinnock has been dropped from the starting lineup. That foursome of players played a combined 251 snaps in Los Angeles, with Warner, Sigle, and Pinnock not missing a single snap.
Williams will likely be replaced by Bryce Huff, who could return on Sunday after suffering a hamstring injury a few weeks ago against Atlanta. Huff was featured against the Rams, playing 40 snaps and recording his third sack of the season.
Bethune didn’t play a snap in Week 5 but has turned into an unsung hero of the defense due to Warner’s injury. The second-year linebacker has recorded 50 tackles in the four games since Warner went down, with 21 of those tackles being solo. After 10 tackles against the Buccaneers and Falcons, Bethune has set a new career-high in tackles each of the last two weeks, with 14 tackles in Houston and 16 last week against the Giants.
The safety switch could be the most beneficial of the lineup changes come Sunday, facing one of the best passing attacks in the league. Pinnock and Sigle have been replaced by Malik Mustapha, who was injured in Week 5, and Ji’Ayir Brown. Sigle was picked on by Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles, targeting the safety eight times with seven receptions, with Sigle allowing a team-high 138 yards when targeted, per Pro Football Focus.
Back in Week 5, it was the offense that was dealing with the injuries, but the 49ers still managed to squeak out a victory. On Sunday, it’ll be the defense with the wholesale changes, and that could spell trouble against one of the more potent offenses in the league.
4.5
The Rams allow a sack on 4.5 percent of drop-backs, the sixth-best rate in the league.
This will also be a problem for the 49ers’ depleted defense, as no position group on that side of the ball has been more depleted than the defensive line. Without Nick Bosa, Mykel Williams, or Yetur Gross-Matos, the 49ers’ pass rush will heavily feature Huff, Sam Okuayinonu, Keion White, and Clelin Ferrell, two of whom weren’t with the 49ers last week, let alone back in Week 5.
The 49ers have only sacked opposing quarterbacks 11 times this season, with a sack on 3.5 percent of opponents’ drop-backs. Only Jacksonville has been worse than San Francisco in both categories entering Week 10, with 10 sacks and a 3.3 sack rate, but they have a game in hand over the 49ers, with their bye week already past. To make the 49ers pass rush sound that much worse, Brian Burns leads the league with 11.0 sacks this season, he alone matching the 49ers team total.
To put it in fewer words: the 49ers’ pass rush has not been good this season, and with how well the Rams have done protecting Matthew Stafford, it might not get any easier. In only three of the nine games played this season, the 49ers have recorded two or more sacks, with two of those three games coming in the last three weeks.
While the Rams allowed pressure on 22.1 percent of Stafford’s drop-backs through the first four weeks of the season, entering the first matchup against the 49ers, Los Angeles has improved, now sitting at a pressure rate of 17.9 percent through eight games —a top-ten rate according to Pro Football Reference. The 49ers’ pass rush has pressured the opposing quarterback at about half that rate, generating pressure on 11.4 percent of opponents’ drop-backs, per PFR. They’ll be even luckier if they can hit Stafford, with a quarterback knockdown rate of 4.3 percent, the worst in the league.
A returning Huff and a surging Okuayinonu will undoubtedly help, but the Los Angeles offensive line has been a tough one to crack this season. The 49ers might not have the firepower to be the group to figure it out.
77.3
The 49ers offense averages 77.3 rushing yards per game against teams in the top half of the league in rushing yards against per game.
San Francisco had one of its better rushing performances of the season in Week 9, when it put up 159 rushing yards against the Giants, behind Christian McCaffrey’s 106 yards on 28 attempts. Two weeks prior, the 49ers ran for a season-high 174 yards in the win against the Falcons. Neither should have come as a surprise, as both of those defenses are in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards allowed.
Only three of the 49ers’ nine games this season have come against teams in the bottom half of rushing yards allowed: Week 2 against the Saints (24th in the league in rushing yards against per game), Week 7 versus the Falcons (23rd), and the Giants (31st). In those three games, the 49ers have averaged 136.7 rushing yards, well above their season average of 97.1.
In the six other games where they’ve faced top-half run defenses, they’re at 77.3 rushing yards per game, well below their average.
The bad news for Sunday is that the Rams are in the top half of the league, allowing 99.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 11th. When these two teams met in Week 5, San Francisco managed only 74 rushing yards over four quarters and overtime in the win, their fourth-fewest yards in a game this season. McCaffrey was held to just 57 yards on 22 attempts, suitable for a season-low 2.6 yards per attempt.
With Spencer Burford in the starting lineup on Sunday against the Giants, the 49ers averaged 6.3 yards per attempt when running behind the left guard, but again, that could have been a product of facing a poor New York run defense. This Sunday against Los Angeles will be a much tougher test for the run game to get going.
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