The 49ers did not fall in line with consensus boards
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Or should we say the evaluator?
If you’re a fan of speed and athleticism, you’ll love what John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan accomplished this past weekend. But if you believe the team needed to add talent in the trenches or conform to consensus draft boards, you’ll be disappointed.
Draft analysts everywhere are grading every team and how they did from a value perspective now that the 2024 NFL Draft is behind us. Below is a compilation of 20 instant evaluations from 20 different analysts. When you compile the GPA from every team, the San Francisco 49ers come in at 25th overall.
One evaluator, The Ringer’s Danny Kelly, gave the Niners an A grade, and seven of the 20 analysts gave them a C grade.
That includes most sporting publications, from PFF to ESPN to Yahoo Sports. If you disagree with the grade, you’re quick to point out how “Patrick Mahomes was a C-.”
It’s worth pointing out that history is against you when you “reach” for a prospect, which many believe the 49ers did with Ricky Pearsall in the first round.
When you delve into each player’s selection, it’s crucial to consider their fit. What unique qualities did Team A see in Player X that made them worthy of a draft pick?
We could argue whether the Niners should’ve taken another player or position until we’re blue in the face. Instead, let’s talk about why he was the pick. Based on what we saw last, the 49ers struggled to separate from man coverage on the biggest stage and didn’t have two of their three best pass catchers fully healthy.
Pearsall never missed a game in college. He played through injuries but was never a “DNP.” That’s a good start.
Can he win on the routes Kyle Shanahan needs him to? The 49ers love running crossing routes at all levels of the field. Per StatsBomb, Pearsall generated the most EPA on routes going over the middle:
Per Sumer Sports, Pearsall finished second among eligible draft receivers in average separation. How? His athletic testing gives us a hint. On those in-breaking routes, you need to run away from defenders. Pearsall ran a 4.41, and while there’s debate about whether he plays that fast, his 97th-percentile vertical jump isn’t a number you can fake. Plus, his 93rd percentile 3-cone highlights Pearsall’s quickness. Objectively, Pearsall has first-round athleticism.
Most draft boards were lower on Pearsall due to his age. Looking back at recruiting rankings, some of the top players from Pearsall’s high school class have been in the NFL for multiple seasons. They include Derek Stingley, Travon Walker, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and, for fun, Drake Jackson and Tyrion Davis-Price.
There are a few trains of thought. One is that when you’re 23 playing against players three and four years younger than you, then you better dominate. Two would be projecting forward. Let’s say Pearsall is everything the 49ers had hoped for and then some. You’d be giving a second contract to a receiver who would be 30 before the middle of his new deal.
This isn’t to say Pearsall is incapable of living up to a first-round pick. It’s just explaining why he’s viewed as a “reach.”
One area that’s difficult to evaluate is quarterback play. Pearsall finished seventh among all wideouts in yards after the catch per reception, but he has plays where he’s running full speed in one direction and has to come to a complete halt, reach behind him fully extended, to secure the catch. Obviously, those plays impact your stats.
There will be inevitable groans when Pearsall’s box scores don’t look the same as other receivers taken in the top 50. Remembering their roles is important. For example, the Buffalo Bills selected Keon Coleman to begin the second round. He’s fighting for targets with a fifth-round pick from the 2022 NFL Draft class, Khalil Shakir — a slot receiver, and two free agents in Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins.
It would be bizarre if Coleman didn’t produce more than a player selected ahead of him on the same team as Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey.
“Upside” is a popular term in the draft community. Coleman, 20, is a prime example. The 49ers went with experience over upside in this draft. They wanted players with ample experience ready to contribute at the start of training camp. Youth has burned this team, so it’s easy to understand why.
Which brings us to Day 2 of the draft. The 49ers had an opportunity to take a young, 5-star offensive tackle but elected to go cornerback instead. If the Kansas City Chiefs turn Kingsley S and the 49ers are left without a succession plan at left tackle, the hindsight game won’t be fun to bring up.
If you’re covering the 49ers from a national perspective, you remember Steve Spagnuolo blitzing and thinking the offensive line is a must. But adding speed at cornerback was imperative. In three playoff games, Deommodore Lenoir allowed nine receptions on 14 targets. Lenoir’s mentality and run defense are starter quality, but his size and recovery speed make it easy for teams to attack on obvious passing downs. That’s not a slight to him. Lenoir was a fifth-round pick.
Green did not run well, but there are other ways to measure speed than a 40-yard dash, and Green’s broad jump was in the 89th percentile. There isn’t film of players running by or bullying him. No cornerback in the draft forced more incompletions than Green, suggesting he gives himself a chance to make plays on the ball more often than not.
Green’s addition helps kick Lenoir inside and is insurance if Isaac Yiadom does not play a full season—something he has never done. For the San Francisco 49ers, the need for a cornerback was greater than a player they felt wouldn’t start from Day 1. Green could be needed sooner rather than later.
I’m fascinated to see who gives Colton McKivitz a run for his money. Dominick Puni projects as a guard, but his addition could mean Spencer Burford gets a crack at tackle. Burford, Jaylon Moore, and free agent Brandon Parker will all likely compete opposite Trent Williams. Regardless, the 49ers’ moves told us they’re higher on McKivitz inside the building.
You can see the “why” in each pick. Puni is 6’5, 320. He’ll give Jon Feliciano a run for his money if the 49ers don’t give Puni a shot at right tackle. Mustapha had 49ers written all over him, including how he hits, blitzes, and flies all over the field. Isaac Guerendo is the perfect “scat” back who could surprise at kick returner with the new rules. Jacob Cowing isn’t a gadget player. At Arizona, he was a reliable target who caught passes on third down and over the middle.
Context is key when assessing draft grades.
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