Have a fun, entertaining game where you win, and follow that up with a loss. That’s been the cycle for the San Francisco 49ers since late September. A myriad of injuries on both sides of the ball have led to Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh being over-reliant on players who have no business playing meaningful snaps against a playoff team like the Los Angeles Rams.
The least surprising outcome was the 49ers allowing 42 points in Week 10. The offense scoring 26 points will become the norm, but early mistakes put them behind the 8-ball, and that cushion took the pressure off the Rams before they were ever truly threatened, despite a one-score game for a possession or two in the second half.
There was a lot to unpack from Sunday, so let’s get into the good, bad, and ugly from Week 10.
The Good
We’ve heard a lot about this Rams defense, which came into Week 10 fifth in schedule-adjust efficiency. We know about Jared Verse and the vaunted pass rush, but there was one team that stopped the 49ers offense on Sunday, and it wasn’t the Rams.
Mac Jones was pressured on 23.1 percent of his dropbacks, which was the lowest in the NFL in Week 10. Jones also had the eighth-longest time to throw, at three seconds flat. And that’s saying something, considering names above him like Josh Allen, Caleb Williams, and Jaxson Dart generally scramble and hold onto the ball longer.
The offensive line more than held up, despite going back and forth between Spencer Burford and Ben Bartch. Burford out-snapped Bartch 35 to 28.
Jones wasn’t sacked on his 39 attempts, throwing for 319 yards, completing 84 percent of his passes, all while operating and executing Shanahan’s offense about as well as one would expect a backup to do.
The Rams are a playoff contender. The Rams do not have a playoff defense. Read the comments and quotes on that tweet if you can stomach it. Rams fans got a hold of that, ignoring a lot of what took place during the game.
Jones had the second-highest success rate in a game in his career against the Rams on Sunday at 64.1 percent. The third-highest in his career? Week 5.
No, this did not happen because the Rams were in a “prevent” defense. Jones completed 11 of his 12 passes in under 2.5 seconds for 119 yards. He completed all ten of his throws when under center for 93 yards and a touchdown.
A fumble in Rams territory on the second drive. A 4th & 1 stop from the Rams’ 11 on the third drive. The 49ers ran out of time, or else they would have scored before halftime, as they were at midfield. The other drives were an interception, a three-and-out, a punt, and four touchdowns. But yeah, defense!
George Kittle caught all nine of his targets for 84 yards and a touchdown, including an acrobatic reception on fourth down. You can argue that the offensive output was more impressive because Jones, a backup, only had one viable target. But, man, is that target a weapon. The Rams had no answer for Kittle. They were fortunate that Kittle only had nine targets.
If this season has taught us anything, it’s that Kendrick Bourne and Jauan Jennings have a ceiling of WR3, but can moonlight as a WR1/2 for a game or in a pinch. That’s why, among other reasons, this has been Shanahan’s best season to date from a coaching perspective.
Brian Robinson deserves to be on here. He ran hard enough to run through Rams’ defenders literally. Robinson averaged 5.1 yards per carry while gaining 70 percent of his yards after contact. He had a pair of 10+ yard runs with a 62.5 percent success rate. The 12-to-8 split between him and McCaffrey is closer than anybody could have imagined coming into Sunday, but Robinson proved for the second week in a row why he deserved carries.
One thing we will not ignore is the 49ers generating more pressure defensively than the Rams. Stafford is an elite processer with an arm as good as anybody in the league. When you have that and Puka Nacua and Davante Adams to target, you’re going to look pretty damn good more often than not. That was the case in Week 10.
That doesn’t ignore Bryce Huff’s four pressures, or Keion White having a season-high three pressures and pressure rate. Kalia Davis pitched in a pair, while Upton Stout did as well. Huff had three quarterback hits. Dee Winters had two. White, Davis, and Stout all had one. They were close. But we know how valuable closeness is in this sport.
It wasn’t good enough against arguably the best offense in the NFL, but if Saleh can speed up the quarterbacks this team will face over the next month, the way he did Stafford, the results will be far more favorable.
Skyy Moore’s 27-yard punt return should be mentioned. We call him out when there are mistakes, but Moore has made multiple big plays in the past few weeks.
In a game that never felt close, there were plenty of positives for the home team. Unfortunately, there were more warts to focus on.
The Bad
I feel for Jauan Jennings, because his second target of the game could have easily been flagged for defensive pass interference. But it wasn’t, and it still was a pass a professional receiver should catch. To make matters worse, had Jones held the ball for another half second, George Kittle was wide open at the second level of the concept. But given the Rams’ pass rush, it’s understandable that was the outcome.
But therein lies the problem with Jennings. He’s a contested-catch receiver because separation isn’t his strong suit. It’s why, from an EPA standpoint, he’s one of the least valuable receivers in the NFL. There was another would-be pass interference not called. Jennings had his contributions.
He caught a touchdown and picked up three other first downs. Two pre-snap penalties and a fumble that could have made it 14-7. Instead, it was 21-0. Jennings was non-existent in the second half. He did not receive another target until the two-point conversion attempt, with 2:59 remaining in the fourth quarter.
After Sunday, only Xavier Legette and Jerry Jeudy have a lower EPA per target this season than Jennings. It’s another reason why this team desperately needs at least one of their two former first-round picks back.
One area where the 49ers should focus on this offseason is adding speed in the secondary. They looked slow against the Rams. They always seemed to be a step behind. It’s still clear as ever that Saleh does not trust Deommodore Lenoir in man-to-man situations. Technically, Lenoir gave up two touchdowns. Renardo Green also gave one up. Upton Stout was targeted three times and allowed 50 yards on three receptions.
When your three cornerbacks are targeted 15 times and allow 12 receptions and three touchdowns, there’s not much you can do as a coordinator. Stout is the only player whose speed jumps out in the secondary. Malik Mustapha is good at coming downhill against the run, but he’s often a step or two behind in coverage. Ji’Ayir Brown’s athleticism is exposed on a weekly basis. This secondary needs to get faster.
The Ugly
On 3rd & 10, Saleh dials up pressure, and Stout wins. Both Stout and Huff get to Stafford, forcing an errant throw. The ball hits Renardo Green in the numbers. Green drops the interception. The 49ers had two timeouts, would have had the ball with 1:15 to play in a 21-7 game, and would have received the opening kickoff to begin the third quarter. Those are the plays contenders make.
We saw how easily the Niners moved the ball before the half. They reached midfield on two plays before pre-snap penalties stalled the drive. It was a brutal sequence that might not have altered the outcome of the game, but it would have put some pressure on the Rams.
If you told me the 49ers defense missed 20 tackles on Sunday, I’d say that number is too low. This is where the lack of speed and athleticism really shows up. The 49ers have a distinct style of play on this side of the ball.
During the first quarter of the broadcast, Tom Brady said the defense needed to be more physical because that’s why they were getting pushed around. Not to disagree with one of the greatest of all-time, but it’s apparent that the issue the defense has is more skill than physicality — due in large part to injuries.
The 49ers only missed eight tackles, but that’s because those are the ones they made contact with. Ji’Ayir Brown missed three, while Malik Mustapha and Luke Gifford missed two. It felt like 20.
Even when Saleh attempts to get creative, like putting Jason Pinnock in on passing downs as a linebacker, nothing changes. Pinnock looks lost and is either overrunning the ball-carrier or getting beaten in coverage.
The offseason signings from the Giants, Titans, and Jaguars did not work out. Who could have predicted such a thing? Pinnock (Giants) has become unplayable, even in sub-packages. Luke Gifford (Titans) is a special teamer. He should not play a defensive snap for the rest of the season. He can’t. He does nothing well.
During the glory days of this regime, that third linebacker was Azeez Al-Shaair or Dre Greenlaw. They played SAM before they graduated to WILL. For whatever reason, that’s not the case with third-round pick Nick Martin, who came into the NFL with a reputation of being an above-average pass rusher who can cover.
The Rams used 12 and 13-personnel, which meant Saleh would turn to his base packages, playing Gifford. That led to Gifford being targeted four times and allowed 50 yards. If you don’t plan on re-watching this game, let me paint the picture of how Gifford looked in coverage. Imagine what it’s like trying to ice skate without actual ice skates. That’s Gifford, just on a football field.
The other Luke, Farrell (Jaguars), was signed to block. Farrell missed one of the biggest blocks in the game on fourth down. Jake Tonges did not play an offensive snap.
Farrell has been a disappointment, despite not having expectations. Would it not make more sense, especially since Kyle Juszczyk is a pseudo tight end as it is, to use Tonges over Farrell? Yes, Farrell caught both of his targets. Yes, I understand there’s about a 10- to 15-pound weight difference between Farrell and Tonges. But when you mess up on the one thing you were signed to do, and it’s not a single occurrence, you wonder why changes haven’t been made.
The good news for the 49ers is that this game should be easy to flush, and the next four games will give them a chance to right the ship and stack multiple wins together, as opposed to the seesaw it’s been for the past couple of months. But, as Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle mentioned postgame, it comes down to execution.
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