Honestly, a matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Cleveland Browns shouldn’t be as interesting as it is. There is no shortage of storylines. Inclement weather in Cleveland, Kyle Shanahan’s history against Jim Schwartz, Brock Purdy’s recent play, and Myles Garrett’s assault on the record books. Oh, right, Sheduer Sanders will start for Cleveland following his first NFL start and win in Las Vegas. With all of that, the 49ers still need to keep stacking wins to secure a playoff spot. Cleveland has a poor record, but matches up extremely well with the 49ers on defense.
Here are three things to watch for on Sunday:
Handling Cleveland’s pressure
Myles Garrett is on a war path. Still, the entire Browns defensive line has been excellent this season. Former 49er Maliek Collins has seen a resurgence, and rookie Mason Graham has quietly put together a solid rookie season. Schwartz doesn’t need to blitz much, as evidenced by his 17th-ranked blitz rate of 28.3%. The Browns still lead the league in pressure rate at 37.9%. The 49ers are actually third in pressure rate allowed at 25.2%, but 26th in pressure EPA at -0.59.
Cleveland has deployed Garrett as the REO on 412 of his 519 snaps. Garrett vs. Trent Williams is must-see TV.
Where the 49ers’ passing attack can thrive
The Browns’ defense is stingy everywhere. The weather will not be conducive to passing the football on Sunday. Whether that is precipitation or wind. However, there is an area of the field for the 49ers to exploit. The 49ers attack intermediate regions at a 20.9% rate, but rank seventh with an EPA of 0.51. The Browns are 21st in the NFL in defending intermediate throws with an EPA of 0.47. The weather won’t do the 49ers any favors, but the need to threaten with passes will keep Cleveland off balance.
Cleveland’s offensive struggles
Yes, the Browns are impressive on defense. Goodness, are they terrible offensively. Some of the numbers are almost hard to believe. Cleveland ranks 31st in EPA/play (-0.17), 32nd in EPA/DB (-0.27), 32nd in success rate (33.9%), and 30th in explosive play rate (7.9%).
Funny enough, the only metric the Browns aren’t rock bottom in is rushing EPA (-0.03, 20th), but the 49ers are a top ten defense in EPA against the run at -0.06. The 49ers offense will have to limit turnovers, but the defense is in another good spot facing the Browns’ inept offense.
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