The San Francisco 49ers’ bye week has come and gone, and with such a late bye week, we turn our attention to the final stretch of the regular season.
With the 49ers entering Week 15 at 9-4 and a 93 percent chance to make the playoffs according to NFL.com, they will gladly look up and see ahead of them are the 2-11 Tennessee Titans in a tight fight for the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft.
While Tennessee is fresh off its second win of the season, the 49ers are looking to extend their win streak to four games, with a tough stretch of games over the final three weeks of the season. These are the numbers to know for the 49ers’ 14th fixture of the season, with the Titans heading into Santa Clara:
-12.0
The Titans’ average margin of victory is -12.0, last in the league.
With Tennessee sitting at a league-worst 2-11 record, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Titans are dead last in point differential, but when they lose, it’s typically a blowout.
After starting their season with a modest enough eight-point loss to the Denver Broncos, things went downhill quickly for the Titans. Their 14-point Week 2 loss to the Rams started a stretch of six of seven games in which the Titans lost by 10 or more points, with their closest loss coming to another 2-11 team, the Las Vegas Raiders, who beat Tennessee 20-10. The only non-two-possession game the Titans had in that stretch was a one-point win over the 3-10 Arizona Cardinals. In the Titans’ two wins this season, their combined margin of victory is just three points, with the win over Arizona in Week 5 and their two-point win against the Browns last week.
But after that seven-game stretch to start the season, Tennessee has at least made its recent losses competitive. After six of their first eight games this season resulted in at least a two-score loss, four of the Titans’ last five games have been decided by seven points or fewer, going 1-4 over that stretch, with the only two-possession loss coming at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars, winning by a score of 25-3 in Week 13.
Seven of the Titans’ 11 losses have been by nine points or more, and five of those seven have been by 17 or more. After starting the season with five straight one-possession games, each of the 49ers’ last five wins has been by 10 points or more. You would prefer to see that streak continue against the far inferior Titans on Sunday.
440
Tennessee has attempted 440 passes this season, 11th-most in the league.
With how often Tennessee is behind in games, it makes sense that they are among the teams that pass the ball most frequently. However, what hurts the Titans is that they are not very productive in the pass game despite the high volume of attempts.
While Tennessee is among the most frequent of passers this season, it ranks 31st in the league with 2,097 total passing yards. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward hasn’t looked too bad despite the lack of weapons around him, throwing for 2,468 yards this season, but he’s taken a league-high 49 sacks, losing a league-high 371 yards, bringing the Tennessee passing yard total down to those 2,097 yards.
To put it in perspective, the average pass play for Tennessee nets them 5.0 yards per dropback. The 49ers have thrown the ball just ten more times than the Titans (450 pass attempts), but they’ve gained 1,057 more yards on those pass attempts than Tennessee (good for 3,154 total passing yards). As such, San Francisco’s offense averages 7.0 yards per dropback, two more yards than the Titans.
San Francisco hasn’t fared well against the pass this season, allowing the eighth-most passing yards this season while recording a league-low 16 sacks. With how poor Tennessee is in every spot in their passing offense, Sunday could be the perfect get-right spot for both the secondary and pass rush before the schedule gets tougher in the final stretch of the regular season.
9.3/24.9
The Titans allow 9.3 yards per punt return – 11th in the league – and 24.9 yards per kickoff return – ninth-best in the league.
I’m not going to lie, it’s challenging to find a stat that puts the Titans in a positive light, so for our final number, we turn to the third facet of football: special teams.
Tennessee has done a good job preventing the big return in both kickoff and punt coverage this season, with the longest punt return allowed coming back in Week 6 when Las Vegas return man Alex Bachman had a 25-yard punt return against the Titans. The longest kickoff return came all the back in Week 3 when Colts return man Anthony Gould took one back 39 yards.
The Titans have been especially impressive in punt return this season. It shouldn’t come as a surprise, but the Titans have been forced to punt 64 times this season – second-most behind Cleveland, who has punted 75 times – and have faced a league-high 31 punt returns, matching Cleveland. But while Cleveland and Tennessee have faced the same number of punt returns, Tennessee has fared much better, only allowing 9.3 yards per punt return, while Cleveland ranks 27th, allowing 13.6 yards per punt return.
While it’s taken some time to get used to, San Francisco has a solid special teams unit this season with a good return game to boot. The 49ers’ 12.1 yards per punt return ranks ninth, while their 28.0 yards per kickoff return ranks fourth. And after years of being subpar – to put it politely – in the return games, returns have been one of San Francisco’s strengths, especially in recent weeks. The list below shows notable returns by the 49ers since Week 8, with the result of the ensuing drive:
Week 8: Brian Robinson 46-yard kickoff return (touchdown)
Week 9: Skyy Moore 41-yard kickoff return (touchdown)
Week 10: Skyy Moore 27-yard punt return (touchdown)
Week 11: Skyy Moore 98-yard kickoff return (touchdown)
Week 11: Brian Robinson 42-yard kickoff return (punt)
Week 12: Skyy Moore 43-yard kickoff return (field goal)
Week 13: Skyy Moore 66-yard punt return (touchdown)
Tennessee will be one of the toughest tests the 49ers have faced this season in the return game. Still, with the recent surge in the return game, at minimum, it’s become easy to be excited at the idea of the 49ers return, something that hasn’t been the case for the better part of the last decade.
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