The San Francisco 49ers have their second short week in a row as they prepare for the Seattle Seahawks in Week 18. The winner gets the No. 1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
The bye week would greatly benefit the 49ers. While it’s a long shot that Fred Warner returns this year, it would give Trent Williams and George Kittle an extra week to get close to 100 percent. It’d also mean you are one game closer to a Super Bowl, and you avoid the chaos that could happen in the Wild Card round.
But first things first, and that’s the Seahawks. The good news for the 49ers, no matter who has played, is that they are 5-0 on primetime this season. This will be their most difficult challenge to date.
San Francisco opened up as the short favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook. The Seahawks have flipped to favorites, but the move is hardly substantial. Going from -1.5 to +1.5 doesn’t mean much. The money line went from -108 to -104 for the 49ers. Four cents overnight is telling you nobody knows what to do with this game.
We have another sky-high total. The 49ers have been soaring over their totals during their six-game winning streak. The regular season finale is set at 49.5. While that’s a normal total for the 49ers, it’s the highest total for Seattle since they played the Rams on November 16. Going back to October 20, the Seahawks have had projected totals of 42.5 or lower six times.
Since week 11, the 49ers’ offense is second in epa per play and third in success rate. During that same stretch, the Seahawks are 21st in EPA per play and 10th in success rate. Sam Darnold isn’t generating the big play and is being forced to win on a down-by-down basis. It’s not happening, which is why the totals have been low.
The Niners’ defense has been in the giving mood. Their defense isn’t anywhere near Seattle’s, but an average defense will get the job done when your offense is as potent as San Francisco’s. The 49ers’ defense sits at 15th in EPA per play but drops to 24th in success rate defensively, while Seattle is second in both stats.
We know what we’re getting from the 49ers offense and the Seahawks defense, but the variance on the other side of the ball makes this game unpredictable, which is why oddsmakers have this as a coin flip.
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