The 49ers would own the No. 1 overall pick if the season ended after Week 12. Given their struggles this season, a two-win finish that culminates in the top pick is probably more favorable than a three-win finish that pushes them closer to the No. 5 selection. Despite hanging onto the top spot in the 2019 draft after 12 weeks, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has the 49ers as the runners up to finish with the No. 1 pick.
ESPN’s FPI simulates season results 10,000 times and works with the results of those simulations. Those simulations give the 49ers a 31 percent chance to land the top pick. Arizona has the best chance at 43 percent according to ESPN’s latest results.
There are a slew of factors that’ll go into who nets the top spot. The 49ers, Cardinals and Raiders are the only three teams left. Their schedules don’t shake out favorably when it comes to finding another win. Assuming they all finish with two wins, the tiebreaker is strength of schedule.
That’s where the FPI becomes valuable because it isn’t simply giving the chances the teams will lose out, but it’s combining that with 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season to see what the strength of schedule might finish like as well.
There’s a very real possibility that the top three draft order comes down to strength-of-schedule.
The good news for the 49ers is that they’re very likely to finish with two wins. They have two games left against the Seahawks, one against the resurgent Broncos, one against the playoff-bound Bears, and one against the one-loss Rams.
That’s a brutal stretch to end the year. San Francisco is guaranteed a top three pick if they go 2-14. ESPN has the 49ers with a 95 percent shot to grab a top-three selection. Arizona is at 99 percent. Oakland is at 94. The top three is all but locked in.
Draft-position watch is the surest sign of an ugly year, and surely 49ers fans are tired of gearing up for the draft in November. However, it is reality for a San Francisco team that’s been obliterated by injuries since before the season started.
Losing out isn’t the way the team wants to finish, but it looks more likely than not, and doing so while securing at least a top-three pick is the best way for the team to quickly improve its chances to contend.
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