The San Francisco 49ers have a primetime opportunity in Week 7, taking on the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football at Levi’s Stadium.
It’s a big game for the 49ers, who currently stand 4-2 atop the NFC West, but are tied with the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks record-wise. Once again, they’ll be without starting quarterback Brock Purdy and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who are both expected to return in Week 8.
But, they do get tight end George Kittle back from a hamstring injury for the first time since the first quarter of Week 1. Kittle will be a big boost for Mac Jones, who is making his fifth start of the season on Sunday, as the 49ers receiving core consists of Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, Demarcus Robinson, Skyy Moore, and Jordan Watkins.
They’ll face an Atlanta team that has gone 3-2 to start the season, but is coming off a big 24-14 victory over the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. Atlanta has seen its ups and downs, losing a close game to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a go-ahead drive, while also getting blown out by the Carolina Panthers.
But then, they’ve beaten up the Minnesota Vikings, won 34-27 over the Washington Commanders, and now have a marquee win over the Buffalo Bills.
How can the 49ers pull off the victory on Sunday? Here are three keys to a Niners win over the Falcons.
Limit run opportunities early
The Falcons may have the 27th-best scoring offense at 20 points per game, but they hold the NFL’s No. 1 rushing attack, averaging 151.2 yards per game on the ground.
That’s thanks to a fantastic start from Bijan Robinson, who has gone for 484 yards on the ground on a whopping 5.8 yards per carry. That’s ridiculous. Then comes the receiving, where Robinson has tacked on another 338 yards, making him one of the leaders in all-purpose yards on the year.
Winning on early downs will be crucial for a 49ers defense that ranks 14th in the NFL in yards allowed per game (107.3) and 12th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.1). If San Francisco can get Atlanta into long second and third downs, that’s where Robert Saleh can give tough looks to quarterback Michael Penix and give the 49ers an advantage.
It’s extremely tough to stop Robinson and Atlanta’s rushing attack. And the 49ers have been susceptible to the run at times this year. But, they’ve also found ways to shore up and need that more than ever on Sunday.
Minimize turnovers
The 49ers have been one of the worst turnover margin teams in the NFL this year. They’ve turned it over five more times (10) than they’ve had takeaways (5) this season. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons have the ninth-best turnover margin in the NFL at +3.
The 49ers are 1-2 this year when they lose the turnover battle. They had four against the Jacksonville Jaguars in a 26-21 loss. They had two against the Arizona Cardinals in the 16-15 come-from-behind victory. And they had two killer ones last weekend in the 30-19 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Atlanta has forced turnovers at a good rate, but they’ve also done well to minimize the damage, which has kept them competitive for the most part. Three of their five turnovers this season were in the 30-0 loss to the Carolina Panthers. In the other two games in which they turned it over, they either forced equally as many or more takeaways than their opponent.
With Mac Jones at the helm, the 49ers need to play cleaner. Minimizing turnover opportunities against a good defense will keep them in the game.
Disciplined football
Atlanta is the least penalized team in the NFL with 5.4 penalties per game. The 49ers are 13th at 6.8 penalties per game. The Falcons have been very disciplined offensively, while San Francisco has been especially disciplined defensively.
The 49ers will need to keep that up on Sunday against the most disciplined team in the NFL this year. In what should be a close game, the 49ers can’t give any unnecessary advantages to their opponents.
Penalties were a big issue last weekend in the 49ers’ first non-one-score game of the season. They had nine for 65 yards, and a couple proved to be crucial. In the first half, the 49ers got a penalty after getting a third-down conversion on first down. That derailed the drive and led to a quick punt.
On the opening drive of the third quarter, down 20-16, the 49ers had the momentum, getting into the red zone at the Tampa Bay 15-yard line. But, on a six-yard completion on first down, Jauan Jennings was flagged for offensive pass interference, setting the 49ers back 10 yards and eventually forcing them into a field goal in the red zone.
After Tampa Bay scored a touchdown, the 49ers were driving to start the fourth quarter, picking up two first downs to get to the Buccaneers’ 38-yard line. That’s where Jake Brendel was called for holding on a six-yard Christian McCaffrey run on first down. The 49ers couldn’t recover there and punted in plus territory on the drive.
It’s plays like those that turn scoring opportunities into punts or touchdowns into field goals. That can’t happen against the most disciplined team in the league.
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