The San Francisco 49ers have a chance to start the season with a 4-0 record, but the Jacksonville Jaguars stand in their way. Brock Purdy seems to be trending toward a return for the 49ers offense, and it will be in the nick of time, given the Jaguars’ defensive line. Robert Saleh and the 49ers defense will attempt to replace Nick Bosa’s impact on defense against Liam Coen and the Jaguars’ offense.
Here are three matchups to keep an eye on Sunday.
Jaguars’ rushing attack vs 49ers’ run defense
Travis Etienne is in top form through three weeks, averaging nearly six yards per carry with 270 rushing yards. Bhayshul Tuten has been a potent option following Tank Bigsby’s departure via trade to Philadelphia, with 74 yards on 17 attempts and 60 yards after contact. Etienne has forced eight missed tackles and averages 3.63 yards after contact, with 167 of his 270 coming after contact.
The Jaguars run the ball inside 68.9% of the time, which is the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Meanwhile, 31.1% of their rushes are to the outside (28th in the NFL), but they are first in the NFL in EPA per outside rush at 0.32. The 49ers’ run defense has fared well, allowing an EPA rate of -0.11 on inside runs and -0.12 on outside runs.
Stopping the run and forcing the Jaguars to turn to a drop-back passing offense is a huge benefit for the 49ers.
Jaguars’ defensive line vs 49ers’ offensive line
The Jaguars blitz 32.3% of the time, which is good for 14th in the NFL. Josh Hines-Allen and company are far more efficient rushing four and creating pressure with stunts and one-on-ones. Jacksonville has the fifth-highest EPA on non-blitzes at -0.32. Boasting the ninth-highest pressure rate at 36.2%, the 49ers’ offensive line will have its hands full protecting either Purdy or Mac Jones.
The 49ers offense has the sixth-highest EPA (0.16) on non-blitzes, but is 25th in the NFL when pressured with an EPA of -0.69. It’s fairly simple: keep the quarterback clean, and the 49ers offense will be fine.
Jaguars’ passing defense vs 49ers’ passing attack
While the 49ers’ rushing attack is yet to get on track, the success the 49ers have seen throwing the football has been impressive. Yes, the Jaguars have done well against the pass through three weeks, but the lineup of Carolina, Cincinnati (without Joe Burrow and still lost), and Houston’s passing offense isn’t exactly murderer’s row. The circumstances and schedule have inflated their numbers as their passing defense is second in EPA/DB at -0.18.
Kyle Shanahan’s offense is the best test for the Jaguars. The 49ers are tenth in the NFL with an EPA of 0.22 against single high looks and 11th with an EPA of 0.11 against two high safety looks. Thanks in large part to Ricky Pearsall, the 49ers’ deep pass EPA is tenth in the NFL at 0.68. While it will be great to get the running game on track, this may not be the week unless the run blocking turns it around.
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