The San Francisco 49ers look to continue their push for the No. 1 seed in the NFC on Sunday night with their most unique challenge of the season against the Chicago Bears.
The 49ers are coming off a rousing 48-27 Monday night victory against the Indianapolis Colts and look to continue that momentum into their Sunday night tilt against Chicago. While last week they faced the league’s oldest quarterback, this week they face one of the better up-and-coming quarterbacks, Caleb Williams.
While the 49ers dominated the Bears last season with a Week 14 38-13 victory, the 2025 Bears are significantly different behind first-year head coach Ben Johnson.
This week’s numbers to know center around the turnover battle, and whoever wins it on Sunday could come out the winner of this highly contested NFC matchup:
31
The Bears’ defense has forced 31 turnovers this season, the most in the league.
Chicago’s defense is rather pedestrian in specific stat categories, like ranking 18th in passing yards allowed, 25th in rushing yards allowed, and 24th in scoring percentage allowed. But the turnover has been the great equalizer for the Monsters of the Midway.
The Chicago defense has forced a turnover in 13 of its 15 games this season, and at least two in nine of those 13. The last time Chicago’s defense went an entire game without a turnover was back in October during their Week 8 loss to the Ravens. Since then, they’ve forced a turnover in each of their last eight games, going 7-1 in that stretch, with the long loss coming a few weeks ago in Green Bay.
The driving force behind the Bears’ turnovers has been interceptions. Twenty-one of the teams’ 31 turnovers have come by way of the interception. Chicago’s defense features three players in the top three of interceptions in the league, with each player at a different position. Safety Kevin Byard leads the league with his six interceptions, with his most interceptions coming on Black Friday against the Eagles. Behind him is cornerback Nashon Wright, tied with three other players with five interceptions, and linebacker Tremaine Edwards, tied with ten different players with four interceptions.
The 49ers have had a slight turnover problem this season, with their 13.2 turnover percentage fifth-highest entering Week 16. While Brock Purdy does have three multi-interception games in his seven starts this season, he’s settled down in recent weeks, throwing just one pick over his last three games since throwing three interceptions against Carolina.
San Francisco’s offense has plenty of firepower to handle the Bears’ defense. But if the turnovers rear their ugly head once again, that’s only going to cause issues for the 49ers.
10
The Bears’ offense has turned the ball over 10 times, the fewest in the league.
While the Bears’ defense has been forcing turnovers, the offense has been making few mistakes, and that combination has been the most significant factor in Chicago’s 11-4 record.
Early in the season, the Bears had some issues with turnovers, committing six in their first seven games, but things have settled down, with just four over their last eight games. That stretch also includes zero turnovers in five of those eight games and none in their previous two.
The driving force in the lack of turnovers has been quarterback Caleb Williams, who, like in his rookie season, hasn’t been prone to interceptions. His six interceptions thrown this season are tied for the second fewest for quarterbacks with at least 350 pass attempts. That translates to a 1.2 interception percentage for the second-year quarterback, good for the third-best percentage of qualified quarterbacks, and just about on pace with his rookie season interception rate.
While his interception rate is just about the same as his rookie season, he’s already seen a percentage increase in his touchdown rate from last season, a trend Bears fans would like to see continue.
Forcing turnovers hasn’t been the 49ers’ defense’s forte this season, creating an issue facing the Bears’ offense. San Francisco has forced 16 turnovers this season, ranking 21st. But only six of those 16 turnovers have come via the interception, ranking 28th in the league. The good news, however, is that the majority of those turnovers have come in recent weeks. After only forcing seven turnovers over their first 10 games of the season, the 49ers have forced nine turnovers in their last five games, with the Week 15 game against Tennessee being the only one without a turnover over that stretch.
Chicago doesn’t turn the ball over, while the 49ers have been heating up in forcing turnovers, a trend the 49er Faithful hopes continues on Sunday night.
5
Five of Caleb Williams’ six interceptions have come when he’s been kept clean in the pocket, according to Pro Football Focus.
Maybe this is grasping at straws, but the 49ers’ lack of a pass rush might actually help them on Sunday night. Williams excels when plays break down, and he can improvise behind the line of scrimmage. But he’s been more prone to interceptions when things are kept under structure, something that will likely happen plenty on Sunday with the Bears’ excellent offensive line and the 49ers’ subpar pass rush.
Now, this isn’t foolproof whatsoever, as 17 of Williams’ 23 touchdowns have come while he’s kept clean, but he throws interceptions at a higher rate when he’s not facing pressure. His five interceptions while kept clean have come on 359 dropbacks, which is a 1.4 interception rate, while he’s only thrown one interception on 197 dropbacks where he’s been under pressure, a rate of 0.5 percent. It’s not a huge difference, but it’s notable.
This trend continues in his blitzed-versus-not-blitzed numbers. Four of his six interceptions have come when the defense sends four or fewer rushers, a rate of 1.1 percent on 352 dropbacks, while he’s thrown two interceptions when blitzed, a rate of 1.0 percent. Much closer than his pressure-versus-kept clean rate, but still interesting that he’s safer with the ball when he’s rushed to decide against when things stay within the structure.
Williams is likely to face little resistance at Levi’s Stadium on Sunday, with the 49ers near the bottom of the league in pressure rates, according to Pro Football Reference. San Francisco blitzes at a 17.7 percent rate, with only the vaunted Cincinnati defense sending an extra pass rusher or two at a lower rate. With the lack of blitzes, the 49ers’ defense ranks 26th in hurry percentage (6.3 percent), 29th in quarterback knockdown percentage (6.6 percent), and 31st in pressure rate (15.6 percent), meaning Williams will have plenty of time to make decisions (and maybe mistakes).
The lack of a San Francisco pass rush has hindered the 49ers’ defense all season, but it could help Robert Saleh and company against Williams on Sunday night.
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