The San Francisco 49ers play the first of five inter-conference games, closing a two-game home stand against the 2-1 Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.
Just like the 49ers, Jacksonville is coming off a close home win against a division rival, with the Jaguars disposing of the Houston Texans with a 17-10 win in Week 3. Now, they make the cross-country trip to Santa Clara to take on an undefeated 49ers team that squeaked out a win over the Cardinals last Sunday.
In what promises to be a defensive battle, these are the numbers to know as the 49ers look to extend their win streak to four:
14
Jacksonville pass-catchers have dropped 14 passes this season, the most in the league.
That’s five more drops than the next team (the Jets). And while many have mentioned Brian Thomas’ drop issues, it’s been a team-wide issue.
While Thomas leads the Jaguars with four drops on 25 targets, he’s closely trailed by Dyami Brown, who has three drops on only 14 targets. Behind Brown are Travis Hunter, Parker Washington, and Travis Etienne with two drops, and Hunter Long being the sixth Jaguar with a drop, with one on four targets.
Now, the receivers might not be entirely at fault. While the drops are an issue, Trevor Lawrence hasn’t exactly been accurate to start the season. His 55.8 completion percentage is the second lowest of 31 qualified quarterbacks, only better than No. 1 pick Cam Ward’s 54.5 percent. And it’s not like Jacksonville doesn’t pass a lot, with Lawrence’s 113 pass attempts fifth-most in the league.
The drops haven’t helped Lawrence’s completion percentage, but Lawrence hasn’t helped himself either. Pro Football Reference has Lawrence with 14 off-target throws. With the number of pass attempts he has, his bad throw percentage rate is at 13 percent (seventh-lowest rate in the league); however, the drops combined with his bad throws have led to struggles for the Jacksonville offense.
Throw in Lawrence’s four interceptions (tied for second-most), the 49ers could be a prime position to intercept an opposing quarterback for the first time since Week 11 of last season.
26.5
The Jaguars’ defense forces a turnover on 26.5 percent of drives, best in the league.
While Jacksonville’s offense has been around league average, the defense has been the reason for their 2-1 start. The defensive unit has forced three turnovers in each of the first three games of the season, including two interceptions in Week 1 against Bryce Young, three against Jake Browning in relief of Joe Burrow in Week 2, and two more in Week 3 against C.J. Stroud. Include a fumble recovery in Week 1 and 3, and that’s the nine turnovers forced by Jacksonville to lead the league.
The interceptions have been spread fairly evenly, with cornerback Jourdan Lewis leading the team with two, tied with four others for most in the league. Behind Lewis are linebackers Devin Lloyd and Foyesade Oluokun, and safeties Eric Murray, Andrew Wingard, and Antonio Johnson, all with one interception each, with every level in the secondary accounting for an interception.
In a way, it makes sense that Jacksonville would have the most interceptions in the league, considering they’ve faced 118 pass attempts this season, fourth-most in the league. However, the Giants (119 pass attempts faced), Ravens (122), and Cardinals (142) have combined for four interceptions on a combined 383 pass attempts, which is well behind Jacksonville’s rate. The Jaguars’ 5.9 interception percentage is 1.4 percent better than the second-place Seahawks, the same difference as the Seahawks and the ninth-place Titans at 3.1 percent.
Brock Purdy appears likely to play on Sunday after getting injured in a game where he threw a pair of interceptions. Jacksonville’s defense could mean a rude return to the starting lineup for Purdy.
26.5
Jacksonville’s defense has allowed a score on 26.5 percent of drives, the second-best rate in the league.
This aligns with the number of turnovers Jacksonville has forced in the early part of the season, but it is something to note for a 49ers offense that has struggled to find the end zone. But, to put it as simply as possible, through three games, Jaguars’ opponents are just as likely to turn the ball over as they are to score points.
The only blip Jacksonville’s defense has seen this season is when Browning came in for an injured Burrow in Week 2, throwing a couple of touchdowns compared to his three interceptions, which led the Bengals’ offense to 31 points and the Jaguars’ lone victory. Outside of that, Jacksonville’s defense didn’t allow more than ten points in either of its other two games.
The 49ers’ offense almost reflects the Jaguars’ defense perfectly in that way. San Francisco managed to score 26 points in the Week 2 victory over the Saints, but in the other two games, the 49ers couldn’t manage more than 17 points.
San Francisco will have to capitalize on all the yards they are collecting – it’s 1,083 yards, which is the seventh-most in the league – because their scoring offense is lagging, with 59 points scored ranking 23rd. Jacksonville’s defense might just be the toughest test in the early portion of the schedule for a 49ers offense still looking for its identity.
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