49ers-Cardinals preview: A Brandon Aiyuk outburst and James Conner flashbacks

Divisional games are tricky, and the 49ers have usually shown up flat in these spots historically.

We’ve spent all week highlighting the San Francisco 49ers‘ defensive performance in Week 4 against the New England Patriots. Nick Sorensen has this unit trending in the right direction, thanks to the benefits of the blitz.

Defensive tackle Kalia Davis was a full participant in Thursday’s practice and should make his season debut. Sam Okuayinonu looks like a gem in the making.

The Arizona Cardinals only scored 14 points against a defense in the bottom five in most advanced metrics. The Niners have beaten these Cardinals in the last two seasons by a combined score of 157 to 68.

On the surface, it seems like we’re getting ready to watch the second sure-fire blowout in a row, but that’s not how the NFL works. Divisional battles are unconventional. The only thing you can guarantee happening is the unexpected.

A Jekyll and Hyde offense

Despite being familiar with each other, the NFC West has seen unpredictable results this year. The Rams beat the 49ers as more than a touchdown underdog, and the Cardinals beat Los Angeles by 31.

Arizona is a different beast than New England, starting in the trenches. The Patriots started an undrafted free agent at left tackle.

Paris Johnson was drafted No. 6 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft and is a dominant run blocker. Johnson has only missed one block on 97 rushing snaps, per Sports Info Solutions. Arizona loves to run outside of the tackles. They average 5.4 yards per carry rushing around the left end.

The Patriots are the fourth-worst team in the NFL in generating yards before contact. The Cardinals are the fourth-best, creating nearly a yard and a half more than New England.

Rhamondre Stevenson was thought to be a power back. Rookie safety Malik Mustapha him to the side like he was 150 pounds. At 233 pounds, James Conner runs like a true bruiser, but he won’t be running out of heavy personnel under center like Stevenson did.

The Patriots use their lead back under center on 82 percent of his carries. That won’t be the case this week. Per Next Gen Stats, Conner is 38th out of 53 qualifying rushers in attempts from under center. Unlike Stevenson, Conner possesses the agility to make you miss in the event of an unblocked defender:

We can expect plenty of counter and duo runs, making defensive tackle and linebacker play imperative for the defense’s success. Despite his size, Cononer is tenth in average 15 mile per hour rushes per game. He is plenty fast and takes advantage of the holes provided for him.

The Cardinals will sprinkle in other pin-and-pull principles, and just as you begin to overpursue, they’ll run a read play with Kyler Murray, and he’s outracing your second-level defender around the corner for an explosive run.

Arizona’s run game is more creative and explosive than New England’s, creating different angles and challenges for the 49ers to overcome.

Last week, Washington stopped the Cardinals on 4th & 1 with 34 seconds remaining in the second quarter. They went down and kicked a field goal and scored a touchdown in just over a minute to begin the third quarter. It was 27-7 midway through the third quarter. Arizona was still committed to the run on their ensuing possession. Conner had rushes of 29, 8, 6, and 6 on that touchdown drive.

The Commanders countered the Cardinals’ pin-and-pull plays with weakside linebacker Frankie Luvu getting tremendous reads, running under blocks, and winning with his track-like speed. If there were ever a game for Dee Winters, it’s Week 5.

Rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. is a legitimate threat and the first true No. 1 caliber the Niners have faced since Week 2. Arizona did not feature him as their predominant wideout in the first month, but that figures to change as the season goes along.

The Cardinals begin games like juggernauts. After that, it’s a coin flip what’ll happen next:

Week 1: 13 plays, 70 yards, touchdown.

Week 2: 6 plays, 60 yards, touchdown.

Week 3: Week 3: 8 plays, 70 yards, touchdown.

Week 4: 9 plays, 55 yards, touchdown

It’s been a Jekyll and Hyde performance in the four games for Kyler and the Cards. They moved the ball up and down the field in Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills in a game they should’ve won. Arizona scored on its first four possessions against the Rams, and it was 24-3 at the half in Week 3.

But against the Detroit Lions, the Cardinals could only muster two field goals on the remaining ten drives of the game. Last week, Arizona was limited to nine possessions and only found the end zone once after the first drive.

Murray doesn’t throw for many yards but is superbly accurate on the run, is mobile, can make the “wow” throw, and is in the bottom-10 in pressure rate — so he has time to scan the field and hunt for the big play.

The Cardinals have a clunky passing offense and a dynamic running game that relies on its quarterback to play hero ball and get them out of bad situations.

An Aiyuk outburst on a quiet day for the offense

This week will feel like 7-on-7 passing leagues for Brandon Aiyuk. Wide receivers have fared well the week after facing Denver Broncos Patrick Surtain and Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez this season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown had seven receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals. Last week, Washington’s Olamide Zaccheaus had six receptions for 85 yards on six targets, while Terry McLaurin had seven for 52 yards and a score.

This is not a secondary that offers much resistance. Aiyuk has not topped 50 yards this season. He should be shooting for closer to triple digits against this Cardinals secondary.

Arizona averages the second most yards per pass allowed, the sixth-highest EPA per drop back, and has the fewest pressures in the league. Only the Atlanta Falcons have a lower pressure rate. They don’t blitz, either, as that’s the ninth-lowest rate in the league. I’m not sure what the identity is on this side of the ball, but they are not stopping anybody and don’t have the personnel to rush the passer or cover.

That bodes well for Brock Purdy, Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, and Kittle — if he plays.

The Cardinals’ plan is to sit back, play coverage, and make you drive the ball on long, double-digit plays. Per NFL pro, Arizona has run a lightbox (six or fewer defenders in the box) at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. They are daring you to run.

Last week, the Commanders ran for 216 yards on 5.8 yards per attempt. The Lions, who have the best rushing attack in the NFL, had 43 rushing attempts. They controlled the line of scrimmage and ran for 187 yards.

Jordan Mason has hit the century mark in three of four games, averaging nearly five yards per carry. You do not have to tempt Kyle Shanahan to run the ball, but this is where the schedule comes into play.

I certainly wouldn’t give Mason the ball 25 times with Seattle on deck. But Isaac Guerendo hasn’t exactly instilled confidence as a runner, or returner, for that matter. Could we relive 2021 and see Deebo have 10+ carries in a game? It makes sense.

I’d expect both teams to shorten the game for different reasons. The Cardinals will run the ball to keep it close, knowing they cannot stop the 49ers offense. Shanahan will run the ball due to schematic advantages and eventually use play-action after catching Arizona’s defense sleeping.

Last week, the aggressive early down shots down the field were a sight to behold. I think Shanahan will keep those in his back pocket for the Seahawks. Purdy should have a field day over the intermediate portion of the field.

This should look a lot like the Lions game in Week 3, where Detroit won by seven, but the game never was really close. Jared Goff had an efficient day from a completion percentage perspective but didn’t throw for a lot of yards.

Aiyuk has his best day of the season, while Purdy completes over 70 percent of his passes, and the Mason plus Samuel duo run for over 180 yards in a game that flies by. The Niners will inevitably make it closer than it needs to be, but a win is a win, and we’re onto the Seahawks.

Read More