With the San Francisco 49ers winning their last four games against what may be the easiest stretch of their schedule, they turn around to begin the toughest stretch of their schedule with a Monday night tilt against the Indianapolis Colts.
A few weeks ago, this game against Indianapolis was trending towards being a matchup between two of the best teams in the league, but while the 49ers have won their last four games, the Colts have dropped their last four, going from the top seed in the AFC to being on the outside looking in.
While Indianapolis has been in free fall, the 49ers are looking towards the top of the NFC, still alive to earn the No. 1 seed in the conference. But that pursuit must begin with a victory in Indianapolis. These are the numbers to know for the Week 16 matchup:
3.66
Colts’ running back Jontathan Taylor has averaged 3.66 yards per attempt over his last four games.
Allowing Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, and Quinshon Judkins to combine for 229 rushing yards on 40 attempts over the last two games doesn’t instill much confidence in the run defense facing one of the best running backs in the league in Jonathan Taylor on Monday night. But Taylor’s last four games, combined with the 49ers potentially getting Yetur Gross-Matos, Sam Okuayinonu, and Tatum Bethune, could give some hope to the defense.
Taylor lit the world on fire in his first ten games of the season, capping off that stretch with a 244-yard performance against the Falcons in Berlin back in Week 10. That performance put Taylor at 6.03 yards per attempt, making him the league’s rushing leader. And while Taylor is still the league’s leading rusher entering Week 16, something has changed over the last month to where Taylor statistically is just about half the running back he had been in the first 10 games of the season.
The 6.03 yards per attempt through the first ten weeks would have been the best in the league. His 3.66 yards per attempt would currently rank 42nd in the league; that’s how severe a drop-off Taylor has faced.
Maybe it was the injury to Daniel Jones, or maybe it’s teams focusing more on the one-time All-Pro, but Taylor has been nowhere near that productivity in the last month. Before the Colts’ Week 11 game against Kansas City, Taylor hadn’t gone more than two games in a row without a 100-yard game. But now Taylor is in the midst of a four-game stretch where he hasn’t crossed the 90-yard plateau, his longest stretch of games without 90 or more rushing yards since 2022.
The 49ers’ defense has had its fair share of struggles, but they could be facing Taylor at the perfect time. Combined with the 44-year-old arm of Philip Rivers, Robert Saleh should be able to stack the box and make Taylor’s day as difficult as possible while daring Rivers to beat him with his arm.
6.7
The Colts’ defense allows 6.7 plays per drive, the third-highest average in the league.
Match that with the 49ers offense averaging 6.6 plays per drive this season – the second best in the league – and San Francisco should be able to win the ball control game on Monday night.
What has made Indianapolis susceptible to the long drive is its struggles on third down. The Colts’ defense has faced 181 third downs this season, allowing conversions on 41.4 percent of them, the ninth-highest rate in the league entering Week 16. The 49ers offense, on the other hand, has the second-highest conversion rate on third downs, turning the penultimate down into a coin flip, converting on 49.2 percent of third downs.
The stalemate could happen between Indianapolis’ defense and the 49ers’ offense in the red zone. While the Colts allow long drives, they lock up as the field gets shorter. The Colts’ defense ranks ninth, allowing a touchdown on 52.8 percent of red zone drives, while the 49ers offense is also ranked ninth, finding the end zone inside the final 20 yards 63 percent of the time.
San Francisco will need those long drives on Monday night, as the explosive play has evaded them all season. Of the 49ers’ 37 touchdowns this season, only three have come outside of the red zone, with the most recent coming back in Week 11 with George Kittle’s 30-yard score against the Cardinals. Only Arizona and the Vikings have fewer scores outside of the red zone than the 49ers.
But the 49ers have made up for the lack of big plays by being better than in previous seasons inside the red zone. Indianapolis will allow the 49ers to have prolonged drives on Monday night; if the 49ers can crack the tough red zone defense the Colts will offer.
3-0
If the 49ers win their last three games, they’ll be the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
With the Seahawks’ victory over the Rams last Thursday night, this number is likely one you do know. The 49ers have suddenly found themselves in control of their destiny despite everything that has happened over the last three and a half months.
But for all intents and purposes, the playoffs begin on Monday night in Indianapolis if the 49ers want the NFC to run through Levi’s Stadium.
Not only will the games be playoff-like because of the must-win aspect of them, but also because of the quality of the three opponents the 49ers face. The remainder of the schedule includes three teams entering Week 16 at .500 or better: the 8-6 Colts, the 10-4 Bears, and the 11-3 (now 12-3) Seahawks, with the latter two being home games.
The 49ers have had only one previous stretch this season of three consecutive games with teams .500 or better entering Week 16, from the end of September through the start of October in Weeks 4-6. That stretch started with a loss to the 10-4 Jaguars before bouncing back on a short week to beat the 11-3 (now 11-4) Rams on the road, before dropping the third game in Tampa Bay, ending that stretch with a 1-2 record.
San Francisco can’t afford a 1-2 record over the next three if they want the easiest path through the postseason. But, going 3-0 over the next three starts with a 1-0 record on Monday night against the Colts. I am allowed to have a birdseye view of the remainder of the season, the 49ers, however, must take it one game at a time.
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