Perhaps the 49ers’ dismal 28-18 loss to the Cardinals was actually not that bad. The post-Week 5 projection from Football Outsiders indicates the 49ers are now the favorite to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft based on their model.
Given the team’s slew of needs across the roster, winding up with the top pick might be the best possible outcome from a season full of disasters.
Football Outsiders has the 49ers with a 19 percent chance to finish with the top pick in next year’s draft. They’re followed by the Cardinals at 16.9 percent, then Buffalo at 14 percent. No other team is sitting above 10 percent.
This is not to say the 49ers should or will aim to lose. One thing it’s impossible to accuse this team of is quitting, even when they began last year 0-9.
However, the losses they’re likely to accumulate over the coming weeks may be better for the team in the long run. With glaring needs in the pass rush, wide receiver, secondary, and perhaps the offensive line, the 49ers can use all the prime draft capital they can get.
It may be different if they were fully healthy and losing four of their first five, but the fact remains they’re extremely banged up with starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo out for the year. No team would be able to overcome the injuries that have befallen the 2018 49ers.
Football Outsiders has the 49ers with a 3.0 percent chance to make the playoffs. That means the most realistic best-case scenario for San Francisco this season is to wind up with the top overall pick.
It’s hard to imagine they won’t wind up with it after seeing their performance Sunday.
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