Just think how zealous Paraag Marathe will be when he hears about this.
Don’t worry, this is not the mock draft you have grown comfortable and accustomed to. It’s not even the mock draft with the random sleeper pick thrown in. This is a mock draft by NFL network’s Cynthia Frelund that is analytics-based.
This mock goes with Frelund trying to find the one player that helps a team win the most games in 2019. So potential ceilings or players of the future aren’t as huge as players that can make impact right now. The link above goes into detail on the factors in these picks.
The first pick is one that I still think will happen: The Arizona Cardinals walk away with Quinnen Williams. But then the San Francisco 49ers are up and they take a defensive player, but not a pass rusher. It’s Georgia cornerback Deandre Baker. Here’s what Frelund has to say about the numbers on this one:
Remember when I told you that I wasn’t allowing myself to do trades? Well, this pick is an example of where a team could trade down, likely still get the same player and reap a haul in terms of additional picks. I am going to guess people will be a little shocked by a corner being drafted second overall, but hear me out. The acquisitions of veterans Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander changed the Niners’ potential up front. Adding Baker means realizing the NFL-level value of a player who showed at Georgia he could be effective in multiple schemes, possesses elite game-measured speed and, according to PFF, only allowed 10 first downs (and no touchdowns) last season. Baker’s projected NFL contribution creates the kind of front-back defensive balance that has proven to be most correlated to wins. The Niners’ defense posted the lowest single-season marks in NFL history in takeaways (seven) and interceptions (two) last season. Adding Baker here makes all of their other investments (including the signing of veteran corner Richard Sherman last season) most effective and efficient.
That is hard to argue against. If the 49ers could put a trade together with a team this could be a nice start to the draft.
Baker is a beast of a cornerback. I haven’t watched much film on him, but from what I’ve read/seen the biggest knock on him is his speed. Here’s his draft network card if you want to read up on his strengths/weaknesses and overall game.
There’s two concerns. The fact pass rusher is neglected until round 2 is the first ( if there was an NFL Draft to do it, this is the one), and the fact the 49ers have Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon, and Jason Verrett on the roster is the other. If he can stay healthy, Verrett can be the guy they want Baker to be. If not, maybe Witherspoon’s sophomore slump can be an anomaly . Verrett also has a 1-year contract and if he does pan out, I don’t expect him to be cheap in 2020. Baker’s rookie contract could come in handy in that aspect, especially when DeForest Buckner is going to be looking to get paid.
For those of you Bosa fans, Nick Bosa went No. 3 to the New York Jets. Josh Allen went to the Oakland Raiders at fourth, and Kyler Murray fell to the Miami Dolphins at 13th.
While on the surface it looks like the 49ers make a decision that the rest of the NFL benefits from, the logic makes sense. If the 49ers could put together a trade with another team, maybe Baker factors in?
Personally, I’d still like a pass rusher, but that’s just me.
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