The San Francisco 49ers are coming off their most impressive win of the 2025 season with a 20-10 victory over the Atlanta Falcons to move to 5-2.
While the 49ers enter Week 8 three games over .500, don’t let the 2-4 record of the Houston Texans fool you into thinking Sunday in Houston could be a cake walk. 49ers’ fans will be familiar with Texans’ head coach DeMeco Ryans, and the one thing Ryans will promise is a tough defense.
Just how tough is that Texans defense? Let’s dive into this week’s numbers to know:
22.4
The Texans have allowed a score on 22.4 percent of drives, the best rate in the league.
And it’s not particularly close either. The next-best scoring percentage allowed by a defense is the Minnesota Vikings, sitting at 30.9 percent. The 8.5 percent difference between the league-leading Texans and the Vikings is just about the same as that between Minnesota and the 14th-ranked Colts defense, who allow a score on 39.1 percent of drives.
It should come as no surprise that Houston also has the best defense in the league in points allowed, averaging 14.7 points per game. The 49ers offense has posted below-average scoring, averaging 20.7 points per game, good for 23rd in the league – tied with the Carolina Panthers. In Houston’s six games this season, they’ve allowed 20 or fewer points in five games, with the only game where they’ve allowed more than that being last week, when Seattle scored 27.
The 49ers have faced two other defenses in the top five in the league in scoring percentage allowed – the third-ranked Rams and the fourth-ranked Seahawks – with varying results. When the 49ers faced Seattle back in Week 1, they managed a below-average 17 points – it was enough to win – while matching a season-high with 26 points against the Rams, although it took an overtime period for San Francisco to get to that total.
San Francisco has had its fair share of struggles putting points on the board, but things will be that much tougher on Sunday against a stout Houston defense.
32.0
Houston has allowed a first down on 32.0 percent of third-down attempts, the fourth-best percentage in the NFL.
Sunday could be decided on just how well the 49ers do on third downs. Third down is something the 49ers offense has become familiar with, converting 47.5 percent of the time, second only to the Packers. But San Francisco is somewhat comfortable on third downs, running the second-most third-down attempts with 101 (the Packers have run only 76).
Not only do the 49ers run plenty of third downs and convert at a high rate, but they also keep their third downs manageable with an average of 5.92 yards to go on those third downs.
Houston, on the other side, doesn’t face a ton of third downs – the 75 they’ve faced is the seventh-fewest faced in the league – but they’ve done a good job making sure those third downs aren’t manageable. Seven yards to go in the average distance the Texans have faced on third downs, the 14th shortest average distance faced, a large part of which is why they only allow first downs a third of the time.
Ideally, the 49ers avoid third downs altogether against a tough Houston defense, but with as many as they’ve run, that seems unlikely. The key will be to keep third downs closer to the five yards to go San Francisco averages, compared to the seven yards to go Houston averages.
9.2
Houston’s offense has turned the ball over on 9.2 percent of its drives, the 12th-best rate in the NFL.
The Texans’ offense isn’t particularly great, ranked 21st in points per game, 23rd in passing yards per game, and 18th in rushing yards per game. But where Houston does excel is not turning the ball over.
Houston has only turned the ball over six times, with those coming in bunches. The Texans opened the season with two turnovers in a 14-9 loss against the Rams and three more times in Week 3 in a loss to the Jaguars, not to be outdone by the 49ers, who turned it over four times in their loss to Jacksonville. But outside of those blemishes, Houston has only one turnover in its other four games, with the one coming in Week 7 against Seattle, when Ernest Jones intercepted CJ Stroud on a pass that was intended for Nico Collins.
The 49ers’ issues forcing turnovers have been well documented (did you know San Francisco has broken the record for the most consecutive games without an interception?). Without an interception, the 49ers’ defense has forced and recovered six in their seven games. However, in the two games the 49ers have played against teams with a better turnover rate than Houston – Week 4 against Jacksonville and Week 6 against Tampa Bay – the defense has combined to force zero turnovers.
While Stroud has thrown an interception at a slightly above average rate – 2.1 percent compared to the league average of 2.0 percent – I wouldn’t expect Sunday to be the game the 49ers snap their 14-game interception-less streak.
About the Author: Insidethe49
