49ers general manager John Lynch isn’t afraid to make a splash in the NFL draft. His first one as the 49ers’ GM featured a trade back from No. 2 to No. 3, and then another trade up into the first round. This year’s draft provides an intriguing opportunity for Lynch to go back to the well and trade up into the first round again.
Moving around the draft board won’t be easy for the 49ers in a year where they enter the draft with only six picks. That number could change between the combine and Day 1 of the draft depending on how the trade market shapes up. Either way, their stockpile of draft picks isn’t substantial.
What we may see as a result of their specific needs and small amount capital is a situation in which the 49ers opt for quality over quantity in their draft class.
They could stand pat and snag six players, one in each of the first four rounds and two in the sixth. That strategy allows them to try and fortify as many positions on their roster as possible.
A quality over quantity strategy means pinpointing key needs and sacrificing the depth of their draft class to add fewer players, but with more premium picks. We saw the Titans deploy this tactic a year ago when they sorely needed a linebacker and edge rusher, so they traded up in the first and second rounds to get them despite holding only five draft picks. Their 2018 draft class was only four players deep.
Suppose the 49ers select an edge rusher with the No. 2 pick, then identify a receiver or linebacker they want in the back end of the first round. They could unload the No. 36 pick and a fourth-round selection to climb up for a late first-round choice. This gives them a pair of first-rounders, a third, and two sixths.
That’s not a great draft haul in a vacuum, but consider the 49ers’ roster. They’re extremely young and loaded with second and third-year players who will compete for starting jobs in training camp. It’s conceivably more valuable to add fewer top-end players than adding more possible depth pieces.
The last time San Francisco moved back into the first round, Lynch moved up to No. 31 with the 34th and 111th pick to grab linebacker Reuben Foster. Lynch had more freedom that year though thanks to a massive haul of picks going into the draft. The 49ers wound up with a draft class that was 10 players deep.
Free agency will play an important role in whether the front office even considers this type of Draft Day maneuvering. If they’re unable to throw around their $65 million in cap space to usher in better depth at some positions where it’s needed, then quantity of draft picks becomes more of a . pressing issue.
On the other hand, Days 2 and 3 of the draft become less vital if they shore up some of their roster weaknesses through the free agent market. That would allow Lynch to be aggressive with a jump back into the first round.
It’s important to note that Lynch’s moves in 2017 didn’t exactly work out. Defensive lineman Solomon Thomas has struggled through two seasons as the coaching staff figures out where on the line to deploy him, and Foster was released in the middle of his second season after multiple alleged domestic violence incidents.
The 49ers are still undoubtedly rebuilding, and their roster has plenty of weaknesses that could be addressed with draft picks. However, they’re not far from having a contending roster, and hitting on a pair of first-round picks would rapidly accelerate their ascension. San Francisco doesn’t need to make a splash in this year’s draft, but it would help, and a trade up into the late stages of Round 1 may be exactly what they’re looking for.
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