You know who isn’t as high on the list as you’d think

Football Outsiders’ SackSEER projection is back again. In their 2018 version, this projection favored Marcus Davenport over Bradley Chubb. The year prior, they had a wide gap between Myles Garrett and Solomon Thomas. Here’s how SACKSEER is explained. They base SackSEER projections on, “a statistical analysis of the factors that have historically correlated to success as an NFL edge rusher.” Among the stats it measures:

• The edge rusher’s projected draft position. These projections use the rankings from ESPN’s Scouts, Inc.;
• An “explosion index” that measures the prospect’s scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical leap, and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts;
• The prospect’s score on the three-cone drill;
• A metric called SRAM (“sack rate as modified”) which measures the prospect’s per-game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college;
• The prospect’s college passes defensed divided by college games played;
• The number of medical redshirts the player either received or was eligible for.

Here is their top four edge rushers from this years class.

Brian Burns, Florida State

SackSEER Projection: 26.6 sacks through five seasons

Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 35

Similar historical prospects: Jadeveon Clowney,

Burns’ combination of good production and athleticism earns him the top spot in this year’s SackSEER projections. Burns recorded 23 sacks and seven passes defensed in only three seasons at Florida State. His workouts, however, were even better. Burns ran a freakish 4.53-second 40-yard dash — the same time Clowney recorded in 2014. Burns’ broad jump and vertical jump were not quite as good as his 40, but were both well above average, leaving Burns with an excellent explosion index. Burns also recorded a strong 7.01-second 3-cone time.

The greatest knock on Burns is that he played light at Florida State — he weighed in at only 235 pounds. However, Burns bulked up to 249 for the combine and obviously did not lose much of his athleticism. Burns might have to play as an outside rush linebacker in the NFL, but he has a great chance to excel in that role.

Burns is far from powerful. We also haven’t seen him at his new weight, which is now up to 253 pounds. It’s interesting that Burns is number one on this list. I think he’ll be quite good at the next level.

Josh Allen, Kentucky

SackSEER Projection: 26.3 sacks through five seasons

Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 3

Similar historical prospects: Ryan Kerrigan

Allen has an all-around good, but not great, projection. He had 17 sacks in 13 games as a senior, which are really good numbers, but almost all senior edge rushers drafted in the first few rounds have good senior numbers, so those 17 sacks do not give Allen the boost you might expect. Similarly, Allen had a good combine workout, but it was far from historically great. Allen ran a 4.63-second 40-yard dash, which is a great time for a 262-pound player, but was only average on his jumps, recording vertical and broad jumps of 33.5 inches and 9-foot-10, respectively.

The upside to Allen’s SackSEER is that his numbers are all-around good and he has no glaring weaknesses (at least from a statistical standpoint). In that regard, Allen is similar to Kerrigan, who was also unusual in his uniformly good but not quite great SackSEER numbers.

You know how I feel about Allen by now. I do like how they use some perspective here. Allen’s career and usage will be fascinating to watch to see how he turns out.

Montez Sweat, Mississippi State

SackSEER Projection: 25.7 sacks through five seasons

Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 10

Similar historical prospects: Bruce Irvin

The one black mark on Sweat’s SackSEER is his zero career passes defensed. In that regard, Sweat is similar to former first-rounder Irvin. Irvin, like Sweat, entered the draft as a senior after playing only two seasons of major college football. Irvin also had good combine numbers, lots of college sacks, but only one pass defensed. Irvin finished his first five years in the NFL with 29 sacks, which is close to Sweat’s projection.

On the field, Sweat is a tier below all of these guys. His athletic ability makes for an intriguing prospect, though.

Nick Bosa

SackSEER Projection: 22.1 sacks through five seasons

Scouts, Inc. overall ranking: No. 1

Similar historical prospects: Brandon Graham

Despite being ranked first overall on many boards, Nick Bosa does not have the numbers to top SackSEER’s list of top edge rushers. Bosa had good college sack production, but much of it is uncertain. Bosa was on the way to having a breakout season as a junior, but played only four games, so there is no way of knowing whether he would have kept up that pace. Bosa also has only two career passes defensed, which is below average for a drafted edge rusher. Bosa’s explosion numbers at the combine were also below average.

None of his metrics doom him to failure — far from it. Bosa is still an above-average edge rusher prospect, but he does not possess the typical indicia of a future NFL star at the position. To be fair to him, SackSEER somewhat underprojected his brother, Joey Bosa.

It could be that Nick has the same qualities that allowed his brother to overperform his SackSEER projection. That said, Joey Bosa’s projection was similar, but stronger than Nick’s. Joey had slightly above average passes defensed numbers, while Nick’s are below average. Joey’s and Nick’s explosion numbers were similar, but Joey was much quicker, recording a 6.89-second 3-cone time as opposed to Nick’s 7.10-second time. Nick Bosa’s uncertain SackSEER should at least give teams pause before they assume that he will be able to replicate his older brother’s success in the NFL.

“There’s no way in knowing whether he would have kept up that pace.” Bosa had a sack in six straight games. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that he would have kept his pace up. I do think some of the other critiques are fair. I also think this projection undermines Bosa’s technical ability, and overestimates the others athleticism.

How would you rank these four?