49ers general manager John Lynch indicated the team would be open to it at the owner’s meetings.
The San Francisco 49ers are three weeks away from the 2024 NFL Draft, where they’re set to make a selection in the first round for the first time since taking quarterback Trey Lance No. 3 overall in 2021.
However, outside of draft talk, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk’s contract extension remains the biggest issue that the 49ers have yet to settle.
Two weeks ago, at the owner’s meetings, general manager John Lynch spoke to reporters where he downplayed trade discussions regarding Aiyuk, but acknowledged that the team would be open to the receiver playing on his fifth-year option in 2024.
How realistic is the possibility of Aiyuk ultimately playing out next year without an extension in hand?
Latest on extension talks
“Well, we’re not close. And they have made a recent run at it, from my understanding,” Garofolo revealed about the 49ers trying to engage in talks with Aiyuk. “It’s not like they haven’t had any discussions. They have had preliminary discussions. You saw John Lynch say Brandon Aiyuk could play in the fifth-year option and play out his deal—they’re comfortable with that. Then you’ve got Aiyuk doing the little finger thing saying, ‘Hey, I could walk.’”
“So, basically, it’s a little bit of a standoff right now. Now look, this is not where the Deebo Samuel thing was, and as bad as that got with Samuel basically requesting a trade, they were still able to salvage that.”
Garofolo noted that it’s still early in the process and that Aiyuk does love the 49ers, which brings optimism that an extension can eventually come together as the offseason comes along.
However, one aspect of the discussion that has died down recently is the trade talk, and it was telling that the 49ers wouldn’t mind if Aiyuk played next season on the fifth-year option, indicating that they’d prefer to keep him on the team even if an extension doesn’t materialize.
It’s clear that if the 49ers are to compete for a championship in 2024, Aiyuk on the team provides them the best chance to accomplish that goal.
Brandon Aiyuk’s leverage
Now, while the 49ers wouldn’t mind that Aiyuk plays next season on the fifth-year option, it’s unlikely that the wideout would prefer that situation.
However, what leverage does Aiyuk truly have in the current situation? Realistically, it’s none.
Should the 49ers not want to pay Aiyuk a massive long-term extension, they could technically still field two to three more years of team control: 2024 on the fifth-year option and one to two years on the franchise tag.
At that stage, Aiyuk would be entering his age-29 season, essentially taking him away from one major contract.
Now, San Francisco hasn’t ever dragged out a situation like that, which would put a bad image on the organization, but they have the leverage to do so, with hold-outs becoming relatively impossible under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.
A Deebo-like situation?
Moreover, Aiyuk’s situation is different than Deebo Samuel’s in multiple ways.
When Samuel was earning his extension after a superb 2021 season, he had earned just over $6 million on his first NFL contract, with minimal guaranteed money remaining, given that he didn’t have a fifth-year option.
Additionally, without that fifth-year option, the 49ers extended Samuel right before his fourth NFL season, inking him on a three-year, $71 million deal to keep him through 2025.
With Aiyuk, the one area where he has the luxury of waiting is that he does have guaranteed money attached to his name. Aiyuk’s $14.124 million salary is fully guaranteed for 2024 on the fifth-year option.
A long-term contract is obviously the goal, but Aiyuk could elect to wait until later in the offseason to see how the receiver extension market materializes before signing his deal.
Looking at other potential extension candidates across the NFL, Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson, Dallas’s Ceedee Lamb, Cincinnati’s Tee Higgins, Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Houston’s Nico Collins are all entering the final years of their contracts.
Jefferson, Lamb, Aiyuk, and Higgins were all a part of the strong 2020 NFL Draft class, with the first three all on the fifth-year option for the upcoming year, while Higgins, a second-round pick, was franchise-tagged.
St. Brown and Collins were both drafted in 2021, but were third and fourth-round picks, respectively, so they’re in the final years of their deals as well.
With a number of receiver contracts yet to be handed out, Aiyuk could be smart to wait and cash out after a few players come off the board, boosting his value.
On the other hand, the 49ers could be looking to get the deal done as soon as possible with hopes of avoiding having to pay the extra premium for their top wideout.
Fifth-year option
Ultimately, I don’t see Aiyuk playing 2024 on the fifth-year option, as the 49ers haven’t set that precedent yet through all of their other extensions.
In addition, I don’t see the wideout getting traded, given San Francisco’s current championship window, with the 2024 NFL Draft likely serving as the latest timeline for one to be facilitated.
Aiyuk’s leverage is minimal to zero in this situation, especially since San Francisco could realistically have two to three years of team control remaining, which is why I still view an extension as the likeliest outcome.
To me, the true questions come with how quickly the 49ers can get an extension done, and in what order the receiver extensions occur.
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