The San Francisco 49ers are riding high following a victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football. DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Texans are next up, and the Texans are reeling after their loss to Seattle on Monday Night Football. The obvious connection is between Ryans with Kyle Shanahan and Robert Saleh as former members of the same coaching staff. There is also Azeez Al-Shaair playing in his first game against his former team.
Let’s take a look at three matchups to watch on Sunday in Houston.
The 49ers’ offense vs Houston’s top-end defense
Last week, the 49ers’ offense mitigated and eliminated Atlanta’s pass rush by playing smashmouth football with many gap scheme runs. In just six games, Houston has allowed 95.2 rushing yards per game, good for tenth in the NFL. For what it’s worth, Houston has allowed seven rushing touchdowns. Atlanta’s defensive line is light and fast, but Houston’s isn’t and is full of star power. It might be tough sledding for the running game.
Houston’s passing defense is first in the NFL in EPA/dropback at -0.18. Overall, their defense is first in EPA/play at -0.13. With a pressure rate of 32%, the Texans don’t blitz much—27.2% (20th in the NFL) —and their EPA on non-blitzes is the best in the league at -0.31. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, Jr. lead the pass-rushing unit in what should be a stiff test for the 49ers and their offensive line.
The 49ers’ defensive line vs Houston’s offensive line
Saleh and the 49ers did a masterful job of pressuring Michael Penix on Sunday, but the defensive line will be without Bryce Huff for multiple weeks. However, Sunday’s matchup with Houston still provides an opportunity for the line to disrupt CJ Stroud and the Texans’ offense. Of the Texans’ 69 pressures allowed on the season, the offensive line is responsible for 46 of them.
Given that the defense will be down Huff on Sunday, the 49ers may look to blitz a bit more than usual to pressure Stroud. The 49ers are fifth in the NFL on EPA/blitz with a -0.19 rate, but rank 26th in the NFL with a blitz rate of 24%. The Texans’ offense has been blitzed at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL at 32.6%, and ranks 29th in the NFL with an EPA/blitz of -0.30. Huff will be missed, but Sunday could still be a spot for the defensive line to be disruptive.
George Kittle’s breakout game
Kittle returned, and his impact was immediately felt as the 49ers bruised their way in the run game against Atlanta. While his impact was felt in the run game, it was the first time Kittle was shut out from the box score. It’s safe to say that won’t happen again on Sunday, but there is an opportunity for a big game against Houston.
The Texans’ pass defense is stout. They excel in the short area of passing, thanks to their ability to swarm to the football, but can be had in the intermediate and deep portions of the field. Offenses attack the intermediate area 23.9% of the time, which is the seventh-highest rate. The Texans have the fifth-worst EPA/play allowed in the intermediate area at 0.11. Teams aren’t afraid to test Houston downfield either, with a 13% deep shot rate (10th in the NFL). The 49ers offense and Texans defense are middle of the pack in EPA/deep target.
So, why the optimism about Kittle, aside from it being National Tight Ends Day? It’s not only the areas of the field the tight end can attack, but in the last two games, Houston has struggled to slow down tight ends. Against Baltimore and Seattle, the Texans have allowed 17 receptions on 20 targets for 186 yards. With the likelihood of Ricky Pearsall missing Sunday’s game, Kittle has a chance to blow up on Sunday.
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