The 49ers could be forced to move off one of their top skill position players.
The San Francisco 49ers have had a whirlwind of a week when it comes to rumors, as wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk was initially believed to have requested a trade before his agent debunked the buzz on social media.
Following that, Philadelphia Eagles receiver Devonta Smith earned a three-year, $75 million extension that involves $51 million in guaranteed money, setting the baseline for an Aiyuk contract that the 49ers have tried to accomplish over the past few months.
In potentially paying their top receiver a hefty extension, the 49ers are looking to capitalize on their current championship window after falling just short in the playoffs once again this past season.
However, the clock is ticking with their current core, as several key players are scheduled to be free agents in 2025, while San Francisco will likely have to make a tough decision regarding at least one player of their core as they maintain their window.
All of this is currently occurring while 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is on his rookie contract, taking up cap hits of $1.004 million and $1.119 million over the next two years, respectively, before becoming a free agent in 2026.
Purdy’s contract has been one of immense value for the 49ers, as the 24-year-old developed into one of the NFL’s young, emerging quarterbacks in 2023, helping lead the team to the Super Bowl, where they ultimately lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in overtime.
As a result of having a cheap contract at quarterback, San Francisco has been able to build a strong infrastructure on both sides of the ball around Purdy, dishing out significant extensions to Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, and Fred Warner.
However, being a free agent in 2026, extension talks will likely begin for Purdy next season, who could command upwards of $45 million a year on a long-term deal, given the ever-increasing landscape of quarterback contracts.
That could significantly shift the 49ers’ roster outlook, as they’d then have to spend high-end capital at the quarterback position, which hasn’t been the case over the past few seasons.
Evolving NFL trend with receivers
For years in the NFL, the solution to helping young quarterbacks develop has been acquiring or drafting high-end pass catchers, which has often cost teams to make an investment at the receiver position.
Looking at some of the top young quarterbacks over the past few seasons, you can see a trend emerge.
Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes had Tyreek Hill. Buffalo’s Josh Allen had Stefon Diggs. Justin Herbert had Keenan Allen. Dak Prescott had Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb.
One thing remains the same between all of these four teams: after paying a high-end quarterback, they ultimately traded their high-end receiver.
As teams begin to feel the brunt of a quarterback contract, they’re forced to make tough decisions regarding their core players due to the cap, which has ultimately led to a receiver being dealt on several occasions.
Why? Because, as a quarterback grows, their expectations of carrying a team increase, and that ultimately dictates the top group over the field.
After the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes was able to lead the Chiefs to continuous playoff success, winning back-to-back Super Bowls with a much more unproven receiver core, showcasing his ability to carry a team.
Now, that hasn’t been the case for Allen or Herbert, but that expectation now falls upon them as they’re being paid as top-five quarterbacks in the NFL.
Dak Prescott’s case was a much earlier situation, as the Cowboys handed him a four-year, $160 million extension in 2021. One year later, as the team projected for Prescott’s increase in cap hits, Dallas traded Amari Cooper for just a fifth-round pick, moving on from the receiver after dishing out a five-year, $100 million extension just two years earlier.
The fact of the matter is: teams look to their quarterbacks to carry a bigger load in order to remain competitive after handing out significant contracts at the position, often looking to the draft to acquire talent at receiver for a more cost-controlled option.
Buffalo will likely deal with that situation this season after trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, leaving them with Curtis Samuel as their top wideout at the moment, while the Chargers traded away Keenan Allen amid salary cap issues, leaving them with a significant hole at the position heading into the draft.
How does this impact the 49ers?
49ers in the future
Now, the 49ers may not be dealing with a quarterback contract in the present, but they will likely engage in extension talks with Brock Purdy next offseason, assuming he remains on the same trajectory next year.
Quarterback contracts are only continuing to grow, and it’s not unfeasible to expect Purdy to command a salary of at least $45 million a year, with the possibility of even exceeding the $50 million per year range that Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Justin Herbert are in now.
San Francisco is amid an important contract extension with Brandon Aiyuk, looking to potentially get a deal done before other dominoes come off the board, with a three-year deal seeming realistic.
But, given the need to pay Purdy and the evolving trend around the NFL of trading top receivers on big extensions after paying a quarterback, could we see the 49ers potentially shift their identity in the near future.
Over the past few seasons, 49ers fans have been accustomed to strong skill position groups, with the team fielding an elite run game, while having Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel as the top receivers over the past two seasons.
While that could still be the case, San Francisco will likely have to address the position in the draft in the near future as a way to find cost-controlled options, rather than dishing out major contracts to skill position players.
Current window
As I mentioned above, this isn’t a current issue for the 49ers, who still have Purdy on his rookie contract until 2026, although it’s certainly one to keep an eye on as the team navigates this upcoming draft.
But, with a Purdy extension likely on the way, it only intensifies the need to capitalize on San Francisco’s current championship window over the next two seasons with their current core.
The 49ers already began to face the ramifications of an expensive roster, having to release longtime defensive tackle Arik Armstead this offseason, while more moves are expected next offseason.
With how the team looked in 2023, as well as the competition across the NFL, there’s a strong argument that last season was San Francisco’s best shot to win a championship, but the window is still strong heading into 2024, with the 49ers entering the offseason as the favorite to win the Super Bowl, according to oddsmakers.
That leads us to the upcoming draft, as the 49ers are under increased pressure to execute after whiffing heavily on both of their last two draft classes, specifically 2022, when it comes to immediate contributors.
While the 49ers don’t necessarily need all of their top picks to be key pieces in 2024, at least one of their top three selections should contribute this upcoming season, while San Francisco looks to fill their future holes as well.
Overall, though, San Francisco could find themselves on the wrong side of an evolving NFL trend sooner than later, stressing the importance of two things: capitalizing on the closing championship window, and hitting on this year’s draft class.
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