Let’s talk about what to expect from the rookies we know will play

Setting realistic expectations for a rookie class is always difficult right after the draft. It can go both ways, too. I’ll try and set fair expectations for each selection. Let’s use the second overall selection as an example of that.

Nick Bosa

If you loved Bosa throughout the process, you’re expecting him to have double-digit sacks and lead the San Francisco 49ers to the playoffs. For the 10% of people out there that think Bosa is overrated, you’re calling him injury-prone and believe Bosa will never produce.

I think Bosa will be a stud with the chance of being a star.

It’s going to be very difficult for Bosa to get to 10 sacks as a rookie. You’re betting against history with those lofty expectations. Aldon Smith did it back in 2011. Bosa coming into an ideal situation certainly helps his chances. I want to make it clear that if Bosa doesn’t hit a certain sack total, that doesn’t make him a bust. Pressure is king.

Dee Ford has consistently gotten pressure the last few years. That’s why his sack total wasn’t a surprise in 2018. A realistic expectation for Bosa would be to lead all rookies in “pressures.” He was taken high, but deservedly so.

Deebo Samuel/Jalen Hurd

It’s not easy for a wide receiver to come in and make a difference as a rookie. If history was against rookie pass rushers getting 10 sacks, being able to make an impact as a first-year receiver is close to an anomaly. Since 2016, only nine wide receivers had over 600 yards receiving as a rookie. To put that into perspective, 31-year old Michael Crabtree had 607 receiving yards last year.

For Samuel and Hurd, there are a few different ways to measure their success. Samuel needs to score. Anything over 5 touchdowns for Samuel is a successful season. Touchdowns were hard to come by for the team last year, so Samuel can show his impact there.

Hurd is tough to project, just because we have no idea what he’s going to be asked to do. He could carry the ball, be the “screen” guy in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, or be the receiver that stretches the middle of the field.

As a rookie, Trent Taylor had 43 receptions, and 27 of those went for 1st downs. That is the type of production Hurd should replicate. If over 60% of Hurd’s catches go for 1st downs, it was a successful rookie year. There will be a lot of mouths to feed on offense in 2019, so I wouldn’t worry too much about Hurd’s season totals. What he does with the passes thrown to him is what really matters.