Two of the top players are wide receivers
Happy NFL Draft week to those who celebrate. Who will the San Francisco 49ers select in the first round on Thursday? Who knows?
ESPN Analytics has a Daft Day Predictor tool to estimate the percent chance prospects will be available at each pick. Here’s their description:
“The underlying model is based on prospect grades from Scouts Inc., expert mock drafts, and team needs, along with a few other factors. The Predictor considers these factors in proportion to how accurate they have been in the past.”
Now, let’s look at the prospects based on the percentage of players who were selected by the 49ers and whether that player would be available at No. 31 overall.
12 – Brian Thomas, LSU, WR – 3.5%
Thomas is a 6’3, 209-pound receiver who ran a 4.33 40-yard dash. There aren’t going to be a lot of teams who would not be fond of his height-weight-speed combo. Given what he was asked to do at LSU, he might take longer to adjust to the NFL. And while the 49ers could use him between the hashes as a blocker, Thomas doesn’t strike me as the type of wideout Kyle Shanahan would gravitate toward.
ESPN gives Thomas Jr. under 25 percent chance of being available at No. 31.
11 – Darius Robinson, Missouri, Edge Rusher – 3.9%
Robinson was a popular pick to the 49ers in early March, but that was before the team went out and signed multiple defensive linemen. Robinson has an athletic profile, from his 6’5 frame with 34 1/2 inch arm length, but he has pedestrian speed and jump numbers, and it’s unclear how he’ll win in the NFL.
San Francisco paid Yetur Gross-Matos to be Darius Robinson for the next two seasons. Robinson has a 35 percent chance of being on the board.
10 – Jordan Morgan – Arizona, OT – 4%
I’m lower on Morgan than most draft analysts, as he’s in the ninth percentile in arm length and is also on the smaller side. And that’s before you get to his play on the field, which looks more like a player you take in the third round than in the 30s. In addition, he’s a fifth-year senior, and I think Morgan is more of a “groupthink” prospect in the draft community.
Morgan is given around an 83 percent chance of being available.
9 – Chop Robinson, Penn State, Edge Rusher – 4.1%
Robinson isn’t just undersized; he’s small. Listed at 6’2, 254 pounds with a wingspan in the fifth percentile, Robinson doesn’t have a choice to win with his 4.4 40-yard dash speed. He’s an intriguing prospect as Chop makes plays and might be better served as a No. 2 pass rusher than a No. 1, but does it seem like the Niners would take a player who is unlikely to hold up against the run?
ESPN gives him a 35 percent chance of being on the board.
8 – Jer’Zhan Newton, Illinois, DT – 4.25%
The 49ers’ investments at defensive tackle in free agency take the need for one off the board on Day 1 of the draft. Newton is the kind of prospect to tempt you, as he’s a wrecking ball of a player who wins in a variety of ways and would instantly help your pass rush.
Newton has a 42 percent chance of being available.
7 – Ennis Rakestraw, Missouri, CB – 4.3%
Rakestraw is 5’11, 183 pounds, and ran a 4.51. Historically, those are not players you select early in the draft. The way the NFL is trending with the need for defensive backs to tackle, it would be a surprise if Rakestraw was high on the Niners’ board, given his frail frame and how that projects against bigger targets at the next level.
He has an 85 percent chance of being available.
6 – Cooper DeJean, Iowa, CB – 4.3%
DeJean, to me, is a “back to the sideline” cornerback who struggles when asked to play man coverage. Projections of him playing safety or nickel would only highlight his issues as a player, so I’d live DeJean at cornerback.
DeJean has a 35 percent chance of being available at No. 31. He’s a player I struggle to see having the success many do in the NFL. Linear athletes at cornerback are not the ones who perform well.
5 – Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma, OT – 4.5%
Guyton has a 33 percent chance of being available. Oklahoma’s right tackle is inexperienced, and his game is incomplete. His tools, size, and athleticism are tantalizing, but Guyton’s play doesn’t suggest that he’s a first-round talent.
4 – Ladd McConkey, Georgia, WR – 5%
McConkey would be Jauan Jennings’ long-term replacement. He’s under 190 pounds, which may limit what you can do with McConkey on the perimeter. At Georgia, he did not see a lot of press coverage, making his transition to the NFL more challenging to project.
He’ll be a quarterback’s best friend on third down in the NFL, but 31 feels high.
3 – Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas – 6.25%
You better have a plan if you take a 165-pound receiver this early. Worthy is an elite athlete with better speed, but he wasn’t their go-to target at Texas on obvious passing downs. Betting on outliers in the draft is a dangerous game.
Worthy has a 55 percent chance of being on the board at No. 31.
2 – Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama – 7.25%
McKinstry has a 60 percent chance of being available at No. 31. He needs surgery for a Joens fracture in his foot but will be ready for training camp. He should jump off the screen if you’re taking a cornerback this early. Kool-Aid is more of a CB2.
Plus, the 49ers have taken a cornerback this high zero times under the current regime. I’m not sure McKinstry would be the player to change their stance.
1 – Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas – 7.75%
Well, well, well. The second-best wide receiver in the class has a 60 percent chance of being available. Mitchell isn’t a Brandon Aiyuk replacement. He’s a Deebo Samuel replacement. In this offense, that need is greater than a right tackle or guard. Mitchell possesses traits that few, if any, receivers have at his size. There’s also little projection as we’ve seen him come through at critical times for his team and run routes you need to in the NFL.
Kyle, Mitchell is the player you’re looking for in the draft if you’re reading this.
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