The San Francisco 49ers benefited from a last-place schedule in the 2025 regular season. A soft landing in the second half aided the Niners to a 12-win season.
Despite winning double digits last year, Kyle Shanahan’s squad is projected to once again have a relatively easy path in 2026 after finishing third in the division, despite finishing fourth in the NFC in point differential.
The NFL’s schedule release is what we have to look forward to in May. Traditionally speaking, it’s released in the second week of May. However, the NFL VP of broadcast planning, Mike North, said we may have to wait another week:
“Most fans know full well that the schedule comes out mid-May now. That’s what we’ve done the last five or six years. That’s sort of our target. Is there any magic to May 12, 13, 14? No. Is there any real downside to May 19, 20, or 21? No. I don’t think it’s coming out in June, but that second week in May has been our target the last few years, but I don’t know that it’s impossible to think about that third week in May.”
We don’t know the schedule order, but we do know which teams the 49ers will play. Warren Sharp used projected win totals to determine each team’s strength of schedule moving forward.
Depending on where you look, the 49ers’ win total in 2026 is set at 10.5 games. That win total is once again one of the highest in the NFL. A handful of other teams are at 10.5, but only two have higher projected totals.
According to Sharp’s analysis, the 49ers have the eighth-easiest strength of schedule heading into next year. Here’s a look at the top 10:
Detroit Lions
New Orleans Saints
Cincinnati Bengals
Cleveland Browns
New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens
Philadelphia Eagles
San Francisco 49ers
Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City Chiefs
The Seahawks are 22nd, while the Rams are 28th. Both of those bode well for the 49ers. The Cardinals have the most difficult projected schedule.
What a team looks like on paper could be drastically different come the regular season. Not many people thought the Bears would win the NFC North by multiple games last season. The same is true for the Panthers. Some of the most popular analysts thought the Seahawks were doomed after signing Sam Darnold last offseason.
These projections could look silly as we head into December.
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