Two teams fighting for playoff spots meet on Monday Night Football as the 7-4 San Francisco 49ers host the 6-5 Carolina Panthers. Both teams have had success in the NFC, going a combined 11-4 in the conference. Both teams have also excelled in close games, with a combined record of 9-2. Unfortunately for the road team, the similarities end there.
The Panthers have a point differential of -42, while the 49ers are +9. Total schedule adjusted efficiency has the 49ers as the 12th-best team in the NFL, while the Panthers are 26th. All of this is with the Panthers playing the seventh-easiest schedule to date, while the Niners have played the third most difficult.
It’s an ideal home spot for Kyle Shanahan’s squad. He faces a team coming off a fluky win in which it trailed 21-10 at half before having the luxury of going against the ghost of Kirk Cousins. Shanahan has likely had to answer 100 questions about a certain wide receiver from Friday evening to now.
All signs point to a focused effort from the 49ers. Let’s preview what we can expect to see Monday night at Levi’s Stadium.
What to expect when the 49ers have the ball
When Carolina’s defense has been forced to step up in class this year, the results have not been pretty.
This season, the Panthers have faced three offenses that you’d consider above average: the Patriots, the Cowboys, and the Bills. Carolina gave up 109 points in those three games. Buffalo did all their damage in three quarters, while New England only needed one score in the final quarter.
Last week, Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall returned to the lineup on the road against a divisional foe. There was little rust from either. Pearsall didn’t show up in the box score. He spent plenty of time running deeper, “dummy” routes running off coverage. But it was easy to see how his speed opened up things and could add a missing element.
Carolina ranks as a worse passing defense than San Francisco. Panthers cornerback Jaycee Horn has only surrendered more than 40 yards in a game once this season. He’s a stud. Despite Horn’s talent, Carolina has been the fifth-worst team at defending the opposing No. 1 wide receiver. Monday Night Football should be a reminder of who Pearsall is.
The Panthers’ run defense also sits one spot worse than the 49ers in schedule-adjusted efficiency. Best of all, from a matchup standpoint, the Panthers’ defense ranks 27th in defending runs from under center. And thanks to the health of Dominick Puni, a balanced rushing attack from under center has propelled the 49ers into an above-average running team that’s been top-five in success rate since Week 7.
It might not be one of those 100-yard performances from Christian McCaffrey on the ground, but we’re talking about the player who has forced the most missed tackles in the NFL. And with George Kittle on the field, the Niners have stayed out of longer down and distances.
It’s an ideal matchup for the offense, especially when you look at the middle of the field.
Shanahan special
The Panthers are far and away the best team at taking away the No. 2 wide receiver on each team, which is likely where Horn factors in. Where they struggle mightily, no exaggeration, by double the percentage of the second-worst team in the league, is at defending tight ends.
During the past three-ish seasons, Shanahan has condensed his offense with the splits of the wide receivers and manufactured a passing game that thrives in between the numbers. Part of the reason it’s worked so well is that the 49ers have a Hall of Fame tight end.
Tonight, that Hall of Fame tight end is going against a team without its two starting linebackers. Trevin Wallace and Christian Rozeboom didn’t practice all week and were ruled out. Against the Falcons last week, newcomer Claudin Cherelus gave up five receptions on five targets for 111 yards. Schematically, Shanahan can get Cherelus lined up against George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, or Ricky Pearsall.
That’s advantage Niners every time.
The magic number tonight for the 49ers is 31. If they cross that threshold, it should be more than enough to beat the Panthers.
About the Author: Insidethe49
