History suggests that blockbuster trades don’t happen in April outside of outliers.
The Brandon Aiyuk saga continued on Monday, with John Lynch publically stating that the San Francisco 49ers are working towards a deal with Aiyuk and that the receiver isn’t available. That led to the newly-accustomed emoji-filled response from Aiyuk on his Instagram, and that’s where things stand as of now.
But the trade portion of the saga could be nearing its end. Both recent NFL history and 49ers history have shown that if an Aiyuk move doesn’t happen before the end of March, it most likely won’t happen. With the recent trend of star receivers getting traded over the off-season, most of those trades happened in March, dating back to 2019:
- March 12, 2019: Giants traded Odell Beckham to Cleveland
- March 13, 2019: Pittsburgh traded Antonio Brown to Oakland
- March 16, 2020: Houston traded DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona
- March 16, 2020: Minnesota traded Stefon Diggs to Buffalo
- March 17, 2022: Green Bay traded Davante Adams to Las Vegas
- March 23, 2022: Kansas City traded Tyreek Hill to Miami
- April 28, 2022: Tennessee traded A.J. Brown to Philadelphia
The Titans’ decision not to trade Brown until the first day of the 2022 NFL draft is the apparent outlier of the group. While there is always the possibility of the 49ers doing the same – Deebo Samuel to the Jets was a rumor up until New York selected Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson in the 2022 draft – keep in mind that decision by then-Titans general manager Jon Robinson probably played a role in his firing that December.
John Lynch and company have also followed the March trend with the 49ers’ two biggest offseason trades of the regime. The DeForest Buckner trade in 2020 was on March 16, and the move up to No. 3 in 2022 happened later in March on the 26th.
Obviously, the Aiyuk situation is fluid, and anything can change at any given moment, but the past has shown that if a deal isn’t made this week, it likely won’t happen this off-season. And given the 49ers’ recent history of extending players in the summer, no news this week could result in good news come July or August.
About the Author: Insidethe49
