Monday night’s matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Carolina Panthers has massive playoff implications. When the schedule was released, very few would believe the Week 12 matchup would have so much on the line, but that is how close the NFC has been in 2025. A victory for the 49ers would increase their playoff probability from 85% to 91%, but a loss would drop them to 69%. The Panthers’ playoff probability is 19% and a win increases their chances to 33% while a loss drops them to 13%.
Both teams are coming off victories, and the Panthers are an upstart team under head coach Dave Canales. The 49ers are healthy-ish on offense (Brandon Aiyuk aside) and are looking for Brock Purdy and company to help lift the team to wins down the stretch. Monday night should be entertaining at Levi’s Stadium.
Here are three matchups to watch for on Monday.
The 49ers’ use of motion vs Carolina
On offense, the 49ers are second in the NFL with a motion rate of 67.8%. The Panthers’ defense ranks 30th in the NFL against motion, with an EPA/play of 0.19. As far as EPA/play on offense and defense, both teams have an identical rate of 0.07. While that is a good number for the 49ers and ranks as the ninth-best on offense, on defense, that number isn’t good, and the Panthers rank 24th.
Carolina has struggled with intermediate throws, ranking third-worst in EPA against them at 0.68. Combined with an EPA/DB of 0.15, 25th in the NFL, the 49ers’ passing game will have its opportunities through the air.
Who can create pressure on Monday?
Two teams rarely have the same issues on defense in a matchup. Monday is a meeting of the two worst teams in terms of pressure %, as the 49ers are 32nd (20.7%) and the Panthers are 31st (21.0%). Both teams mirror each other in blitz rate, also with the 49ers at 23.7% (27th) and the Panthers at 25.1% (25th). Now, the major difference lies with the offensive lines and pressure rates allowed. The 49ers are third in the league in pressure-permitted % at 24.3%, and the Panthers are 23rd at 31.2%.
Simply put, the 49ers don’t blitz, but if they can create any pressure on Bryce Young, the opportunities for turnovers or big plays will present themselves.
Tetairoa McMillan’s slot usage
The impressive rookie wide receiver from Arizona has had a robust rookie season and was on fire last week in Atlanta. Sunday’s game saw a change in McMillan’s usage with 13 snaps in the slot; for reference, that is tied with his usage from weeks 9 and 10 combined. The Panthers split slot snaps with their two boundary receivers. Xavier Legette and McMillan both logged 13 slot snaps, but Jalen Coker has returned and mans the slot regularly with 26 snaps.
Why is this an issue? Well, Upton Stout has been a target for teams in 2025. The Panthers could try to create mismatches by lining up the much bigger receiver against the rookie. Stout has been tested early and often, but McMillan in the slot could be too much to handle. The 49ers need to game-plan for the potential advantage created by Canales and the Panthers’ offense.
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