The expectation heading into the NFL Draft is that the 49ers will upgrade at the position
The San Francisco 49ers entered the 2023 season with a fifth-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft as their projected starter at right tackle. That’s because their first-round pick in 2018 signed a substantial offer with the Denver Broncos in free agency.
The transition from Mike McGlinchey to Colton McKivitz was unknown. The Niners were optimistic, aiming to extract 75 to 80 percent of McGlinchey’s performance from McKivitz while managing a contract that was 75 to 80 percent of McGlinchey’s.
It worked if we judged this plan based on the team’s results. The 49ers made it to the Super Bowl with McKivitz starting every game. Simple, right?
Using Sports Info Solutions stats, McKivitz had a 4 percent blown block percentage, committed two penalties, and allowed 13 sacks, but only two opponent stuffs, all good for 24 “total points earned,” which can be viewed as wins above replacement stat.
In his last year with the Niners, McGlinchey had a blown block percentage of only 2.3 percent while committing eight penalties, allowing seven sacks and only two opponent stuffs, good for 29 “total points earned.”
Sacks are drive killers — even in an offense as explosive as Kyle Shanahan’s. McKivitz missed a block 6.3 percent of the time compared to McGlinchey’s 3.2. And the sack numbers were a whole percentage point better than McKivitz.
You get what you pay for. So it’s unsurprising to see the 49ers in the bottom five when it comes to expectation in pass protection at right tackle:
Quick thread on offensive line starters leading up to draft as I wait for code to run What if we tried to guess offensive line strength given the 5 starters listed on Ourlads and their past performance in pass protection (as measured by grade)? This is what it might look like pic.twitter.com/drVEjPMK7r
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) April 8, 2024
That chart doesn’t speak highly for left guard Aaron Banks or center Jake Brendel, either.
This upcoming NFL Draft is loaded with starters at offensive tackle and center. The 49ers should be in a prime position to snag somebody who can help at both positions. That doesn’t mean they have to select a tackle in the first round. Two tackles are projected to be selected at the end of Day 1, and they come with a buyer beware sign.
Some fans might be devastated if the Niners leave the first round without a right tackle. Others feel like trading up is the only way to pluck a starter. The team could trade back and still come away with an upgrade. There are multiple ways to bring in competition for McKivitz — and other spots along the offensive line.
We’ll have rankings at each position soon to help determine how long the 49ers can wait to select a potential starter. But looking at the chart from above and remembering what we saw with our eyes, a change at right tackle is necessary.
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