Most of these prospects are being selected in the first round of mock drafts
A year from now, when we look back at the players selected in the NFL Draft, a handful of prospects who had no business being selected there will be selected in the first round. Then there’s the other side of the coin, when we wonder why a particular player fell.
Today, we’ll focus on a few “buyer beware” prospects. These players are likely to be selected in the top 50 of the NFL Draft but have drawbacks preventing them from living up to their draft billing.
Full disclaimer: These are my opinions after watching these players. I’m fully aware that most draft analysts celebrate these prospects, but I struggle to see them as “Tier I” types at the next level.
Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
Morgan has been one of the most popular selections for the San Francisco 49ers at pick No. 31 if they stay put. I rate Morgan as a Tier III player, and I believe he should be taken closer to the 49ers’ third-round pick than their first.
There are some inherent flaws in Morgan’s game that I don’t believe will be fixed — mainly because he’s a fifth-year senior. Morgan’s arm length was in the 90th percentile, but his height (18th), weight (37th), 40 (36th), 3-cone (17th), and vertical jump (42nd) were all well below average.
His hands are also in the 57th percentile, which shows up on film. Morgan is often late and off-target with his punch. When an offensive lineman looks like he’s going to hug you, that’s an issue. I’ve seen that all too often with Morgan. He also is inconsistent at getting the necessary depth in pass protection, and his awareness is lacking.
Morgan is quite strong and looks comfortable on the move, but his issues in the passing game leave him too susceptible to getting beaten cleanly in numerous ways. You would expect more from a player who has been around as long as Morgan, which leaves me to believe there’s little upside here.
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
Undoubtedly, McKinstry is the coolest name in the NFL Draft. But McKinstry’s. average size, wingspan, along elite traits are troubling for a player projected to go early in the draft.
McKinstry ran a 4.47 40 despite having a Jones fracture at the NFL Combine. My main problem when watching him is his lack of a second gear. Charvarius Ward has a third and fourth gear he can hit, which allows him to be aggressive and sit on routes. McKinstry’s 34.5” vertical and 10’01 broad jump suggest he’s not an explosive athlete.
While his numbers are OK, Kool-Aid could have easily given up a couple of touchdowns in the games I watched. His “feel” in coverage isn’t what you’d expect from a prospect going in the first round. Pair that with average recovery speed and overall awareness, and this is a player I’d take…with the 49ers second-round pick.
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
The simplest way to describe Guyton is that he’s the player analysts believe Georgia’s offensive tackle Amarius Mims is. The team that drafts Guyton shouldn’t expect a clean prospect in Year 1.
He’s 6’8, 322 pounds— Guyton’s added weight in 2023, which took away from his best trait — his athleticism. But we’re talking about a player from an RPO offense with 13 career starts at right tackle.
Consistently inconsistent is the name of Guyton’s game. Once you get past his size and movement skills, you see a player who overruns linebackers at the second level, shoots his hands outside of the defender’s frame, flat-out whiffs when going to punch, oversetting, or being late with his hands, allowing the defender to get into his chest.
There are examples of Guyton displacing a defensive tackle on a down block or redirecting in pass pro, showing off his natural athleticism. Guyton knows where to look when he pulls and can send a defender flying. But, overall, there are more questions than answers for a player with little experience.
That’s not a prospect I’m betting on in the first round.
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
DeJean is a special player when the ball is in his hands. He’s one of the best returners to enter the NFL in recent memory and has a knack for getting his hands on the football. At his Pro Day, DeJean ran a sub 4.45 40-yard dash with a 38” vertical jump. He’s an explosive athlete. So, the baseline is there.
My biggest issue with DeJean is his reps when his back isn’t to the sideline. He’s a scheme-dependent cornerback. When he has to turn and run straight, there are little issues. But when he’s doing the same on an in-breaking route or is playing pure man coverage, you can see the tightness in his hips.
There’s a reason he didn’t do any shuttles at his Pro Day. DeJean loses a step in separation when he has to transition. For as fantastic of a (linear) athlete as he is, there are serious concerns when it comes time to change direction. Football isn’t being played in a straight line, and his reps in the slot leave plenty to be desired.
There are also reps where DeJean gets pushed around or doesn’t look interested in tackling. So we have that, and, instinctually — think in terms of route progression — you don’t see a player who knows what’s coming.
When DeJean can keep his eyes on the quarterback, he’s fine. But there are too many examples of receivers running by him in press coverage or DeJean losing separation during the reps that’ll look a lot like the ones in the NFL.
Last year, Iowa had a cornerback drafted in the third round named Riley Moss. He put up nearly identical numbers as DeJean. Iowa asked more in coverage out of Moss. To me, that was telling. Moss, to me, was better in coverage. But he didn’t have the interceptions or special teams ability, which is why he fell.
I’m not sure where DeJean excels in the NFL, and I believe the projections of him playing nickel or safety aren’t warranted, as he’s flaws would be magnified there.
Pass.
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