Trying to read the tea leaves to predict the future
It’s been a few years, but the San Francisco 49ers are currently slated to have a first-round pick for the first time since the 2022 NFL Draft. If the 49ers choose to stay in the first round, the player selected will become the eighth first-round selection by the John Lynch/Kyle Shanahan regime.
So what can those previous seven first-round selections tell us now that could give some insight into what the 49ers may do in this year’s draft?
The consensus is that the 49ers’ most significant needs right now are in the secondary and on the offensive line, with a potential future need at wide receiver. While the 49ers haven’t drafted a defensive back in the first round in the last seven years, it has taken an offensive lineman and wide receiver with the selections of Mike McGlinchey in 2018 and Brandon Aiyuk in 2020.
While Aiyuk was a late-first round pick, he was taken after the 49ers selected Javon Kinlaw 11 picks earlier, addressing the hole left by the DeForest Bucker trade. On the other hand, McGlinchey was the 49ers’ lone first-round selection in his draft, where San Francisco opted to address the offensive line over the secondary. With the fan-favorite pick in Derwin James available, Lynch and Shanahan opted to address the trenches with its first pick in 2018.
And that’s where the biggest giveaway is. Of the 49ers’ previous seven first-round selections, four have come in the trenches, with all four being San Francisco’s first pick in their respective drafts. The only time Lynch and Shanahan haven’t used their first pick on a player in the trenches was in 2021 with the selection of Trey Lance—the four before Lance: Solomon Thomas, McGlinchey, Nick Bosa, and Kinlaw.
Of the three biggest needs entering 2024, history shows the 49ers will prioritize the trenches over anything else, which could point to the offensive line being addressed first. However, there are two sides to the trenches, and the 49ers have addressed the defensive side more frequently than any other position in the first round in recent years.
Considering what the 49ers did in free agency with the additions on the defensive line of Leonard Floyd and Yetur Gross-Matos while mostly ignoring the offensive line, Shanahan and Lynch have seemingly set themselves up to go offensive line. But there always seems to be an emphasis on defensive line depth, and with a new defensive coordinator, maybe San Francisco decides another pass rusher couldn’t hurt.
I said last week that an offensive lineman in the first round is the right choice, but with the 49ers history, you can never rule out a pass rusher with its first selection.
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